Thu, Jan 26, 2017·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Buffalo Sabres 3, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 25 | 16 | 016 | 327 |
| DAL | 117 | 319 | 02 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:44BUFEvander KaneUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 9:30BUFMatt MoulsonPPAssists: Evander Kane, Brian Gionta · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–0
- P1 10:59DALPatrick SharpAssists: John Klingberg, Lauri Korpikoski · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 0:42DALJamie BennPPAssists: Jason Spezza, Patrick Eaves · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 13:16DALPatrick SharpAssists: Devin Shore · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
- P2 15:24DALTyler SeguinGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–4
- P2 18:55BUFEvander KaneUnassisted · Snap, 0.01 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:12BUFZemgus Girgensons: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:05DALJohn Klingberg: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 14:28BUFDmitry Kulikov: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:18BUFEvander Kane: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:38BUFMatt Moulson: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:20DALPatrick Sharp: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:42BUFZach Bogosian: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cracknell won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Reinhart – Eichel12:43
xG 0.70–0.16 (81%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Okposo – O'Reilly – Carrier5:40
xG 0.06–0.04 (63%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Okposo – Ennis – O'Reilly5:49
xG 0.09–0.28 (25%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
- Gionta – Kane – Girgensons9:37
xG 0.12–0.69 (15%)attempts 6–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestFalk – Fedun7:58
xG 0.14–0.08 (65%)attempts 8–3goals 1–1
- Kulikov – Ristolainen18:34
xG 0.52–0.50 (51%)attempts 17–24goals 0–0
- Franson – Bogosian16:10
xG 0.65–1.15 (36%)attempts 16–21goals 0–2
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Roussel – Seguin9:14
xG 0.63–0.15 (81%)attempts 18–2goals 1–1
- Sharp – Korpikoski – Shore11:52
xG 0.44–0.17 (72%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
- Cracknell – McKenzie – Ritchie8:13
xG 0.17–0.19 (47%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Eaves – Benn – Eakin11:13
xG 0.41–0.51 (45%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Honka13:05
xG 0.88–0.11 (89%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Benn – Johns14:37
xG 0.43–0.26 (62%)attempts 21–14goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Lindell15:50
xG 0.39–1.11 (26%)attempts 10–22goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).