Tue, Jan 31, 2017·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Boston Bruins 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 04 | 216 | 215 | 435 |
| TBL | 08 | 14 | 29 | 321 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:41TBLAlex KillornAssists: Victor Hedman, Tyler Johnson · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 18:08BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Adam McQuaid, Brad Marchand · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 19:59BOSDavid KrejciAssists: Brad Marchand, Kevan Miller · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 4:46TBLAlex KillornAssists: Victor Hedman, Tyler Johnson · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 7:51BOSZdeno CharaAssists: Colin Miller, Matt Beleskey · Slap, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 12:23BOSFrank VatranoPPGWGAssists: David Krejci, Colin Miller · Slap, 0.08 xG4–2
- P3 17:56TBLBrayden PointAssists: Victor Hedman, Jake Dotchin · Tip-in, 0.06 xG4–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 10:14TBLAlex Killorn: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:14BOSJimmy Hayes: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:19BOSBrandon Carlo: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:40TBLAnton Stralman: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:53BOSMatt Beleskey: Boarding2 min
- P3 5:28BOSMatt Beleskey: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:48TBLVladislav Namestnikov: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:09TBLCedric Paquette: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 13:23BOSAdam McQuaid: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P3 16:33TBLBrian Boyle: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Filppula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBackes – Krejci – Vatrano10:55
xG 0.50–0.31 (61%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Beleskey – Nash – Spooner9:14
xG 0.29–0.11 (72%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak12:46
xG 0.53–0.48 (53%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Moore – Hayes – Schaller7:03
xG 0.13–0.09 (60%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Miller13:46
xG 0.80–0.30 (73%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- McQuaid – Krug16:46
xG 0.54–0.29 (65%)attempts 15–11goals 0–2
- Chara – Carlo15:40
xG 0.55–0.60 (48%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Kucherov – Namestnikov8:15
xG 0.29–0.20 (59%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Palat – Kucherov – Point2:50
xG 0.13–0.15 (48%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Dumont – Brown – Paquette9:27
xG 0.30–0.32 (48%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Killorn – Johnson – Point7:01
xG 0.16–0.20 (45%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGarrison – Sustr10:06
xG 0.41–0.22 (65%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Hedman – Sustr2:51
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Stralman – Hedman2:01
xG 0.02–0.06 (28%)attempts 2–2goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).