Tue, Jan 31, 2017·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Ottawa Senators 5, Florida Panthers 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 311 | 113 | 117 | 541 |
| FLA | 213 | 213 | 28 | 634 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:24FLAMike MathesonAssists: Alexander Petrovic, Nick Bjugstad · Tip-in, 0.26 xG0–1
- P1 4:59OTTRyan DzingelAssists: Kyle Turris · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 5:22FLAMark PysykAssists: Derek MacKenzie, Michael Sgarbossa · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–2
- P1 8:54OTTRyan DzingelAssists: Marc Methot, Bobby Ryan · Wrap-around, 0.06 xG2–2
- P1 19:29OTTChris WidemanAssists: Erik Karlsson, Mark Stone · Slap, 0.04 xG3–2
- P2 2:19OTTErik KarlssonAssists: Zack Smith, Tom Pyatt · Slap, 0.07 xG4–2
- P2 2:37FLAColton SceviourAssists: Jason Demers, Greg McKegg · Backhand, 0.07 xG4–3
- P2 9:53FLAMike MathesonAssists: Michael Sgarbossa · Slap, 0.04 xG4–4
- P3 13:57FLAJonathan MarchessaultUnassisted · Backhand, 0.11 xG4–5
- P3 19:25FLAJason DemersENGWGUnassisted · Slap, 0.55 xG4–6
- P3 19:47OTTDerick BrassardAssists: Bobby Ryan, Fredrik Claesson · Tip-in, 0.16 xG5–6
Penalties (15)
- P1 6:02OTTCody Ceci: Slashing2 min
- P1 7:02FLAJonathan Marchessault: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:02OTTDion Phaneuf: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:25FLAJaromir Jagr: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:11FLAMike Matheson: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:11OTTMark Stone: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:01OTTMike Hoffman: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:19FLANick Bjugstad: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:14FLAColton Sceviour: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:35FLAAaron Ekblad: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:35OTTJean-Gabriel Pageau: Interference2 min
- P2 10:14OTTDion Phaneuf: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:14FLAKeith Yandle: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:03FLAShawn Thornton: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 14:10OTTChris Neil: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Trocheck won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPyatt – Smith – Pageau2:20
xG 0.35–0.04 (89%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Neil – Kelly – Wingels8:08
xG 0.12–0.04 (75%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Hoffman – Pageau8:07
xG 0.07–0.20 (26%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Brassard – Smith – Stone9:26
xG 0.19–0.39 (33%)attempts 9–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Karlsson15:02
xG 0.50–0.40 (56%)attempts 15–10goals 3–2
- Claesson – Ceci2:11
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Ceci12:22
xG 0.15–0.38 (29%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestMacKenzie – Sgarbossa – Marchessault7:53
xG 0.37–0.13 (74%)attempts 5–5goals 2–0
- Thornton – Sceviour – McKegg5:47
xG 0.14–0.06 (70%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Jokinen – Smith – Trocheck10:49
xG 0.13–0.10 (57%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Sceviour – Sgarbossa2:28
xG 0.04–0.04 (50%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Demers13:16
xG 0.37–0.25 (59%)attempts 7–12goals 2–1
- Pysyk – Ekblad12:51
xG 0.28–0.34 (45%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Petrovic – Matheson13:04
xG 0.19–0.33 (37%)attempts 9–9goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).