Tue, Jan 31, 2017·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Dallas Stars 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 114 | 216 | 013 | 343 |
| DAL | 512 | 17 | 01 | 620 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:53DALDevin ShoreAssists: Dan Hamhuis · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 4:37DALRadek FaksaAssists: Devin Shore, Patrick Sharp · Wrist, 0.41 xG0–2
- P1 11:18DALLauri KorpikoskiAssists: Brett Ritchie, Dan Hamhuis · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–3
- P1 13:50TORTyler BozakPPAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Mitch Marner · Tip-in, 0.02 xG1–3
- P1 16:04DALBrett RitchieGWGAssists: Julius Honka, Adam Cracknell · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–4
- P1 18:22DALJamie BennPPAssists: John Klingberg, Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–5
- P2 4:19TORNikita SoshnikovAssists: Matt Martin · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–5
- P2 7:49DALJason SpezzaAssists: Tyler Seguin · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–6
- P2 10:25TORMitch MarnerAssists: Nazem Kadri, Nikita Zaitsev · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–6
Penalties (3)
- P1 6:38DALEsa Lindell: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:03DALCody Eakin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 17:32TORNazem Kadri: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Marner – Matthews11:50
xG 1.35–0.33 (80%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Brown6:32
xG 0.44–0.02 (95%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Hyman – Brown – Matthews5:02
xG 0.17–0.06 (73%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Martin – Gauthier – Soshnikov9:07
xG 0.40–0.38 (51%)attempts 11–6goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Carrick18:06
xG 0.86–0.48 (64%)attempts 24–11goals 0–1
- Marincin – Zaitsev14:50
xG 0.94–0.81 (54%)attempts 22–11goals 0–2
- Polak – Hunwick14:58
xG 0.82–0.71 (54%)attempts 15–11goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSharp – Faksa – Shore14:27
xG 1.19–0.50 (70%)attempts 13–17goals 1–0
- Korpikoski – Cracknell – Ritchie9:36
xG 0.39–0.24 (62%)attempts 10–8goals 2–0
- Spezza – Roussel – Seguin12:33
xG 0.57–0.73 (44%)attempts 11–19goals 1–1
- Eaves – Benn – Eakin11:59
xG 0.23–0.59 (28%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Honka12:49
xG 0.84–0.75 (53%)attempts 12–14goals 2–1
- Klingberg – Lindell15:49
xG 0.96–0.92 (51%)attempts 14–25goals 2–1
- Hamhuis – Johns2:36
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).