Thu, Feb 2, 2017·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Toronto Maple Leafs 1, St. Louis Blues 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 110 | 08 | 09 | 127 |
| STL | 111 | 39 | 111 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:22TORMitch MarnerAssists: Tyler Bozak, James van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 17:58STLAlexander SteenAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 6:27STLPaul StastnyGWGAssists: Alexander Steen, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 7:02STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Jori Lehtera, Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P2 11:02STLColton ParaykoPPAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Robby Fabbri · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–4
- P3 12:28STLPaul StastnyAssists: Colton Parayko, Joel Edmundson · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 18:19STLJori Lehtera: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:03STLJay Bouwmeester: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:49TORNazem Kadri: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 11:56TORMitch Marner: Interference2 min
- P3 7:27STLPatrik Berglund: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:20STLVladimir Tarasenko: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:20TORNikita Soshnikov: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Lehtera
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner8:18
xG 0.72–0.10 (88%)attempts 18–2goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Kadri – Marner3:45
xG 0.13–0.04 (77%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Martin – Smith – Soshnikov10:03
xG 0.26–0.28 (48%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
- Komarov – Kadri – Nylander7:18
xG 0.17–0.22 (44%)attempts 10–5goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Marincin14:18
xG 0.99–0.42 (70%)attempts 18–7goals 1–1
- Gardiner – Carrick15:10
xG 0.41–0.33 (56%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Rielly – Zaitsev14:54
xG 0.26–0.66 (28%)attempts 15–11goals 0–2
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Stastny – Perron11:17
xG 0.74–0.29 (72%)attempts 10–14goals 3–0
- Lehtera – Tarasenko – Schwartz13:45
xG 0.33–0.38 (47%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
- Upshall – Reaves – Barbashev8:04
xG 0.11–0.29 (28%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Berglund – Yakupov – Fabbri9:05
xG 0.15–0.60 (20%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Gunnarsson14:30
xG 0.42–0.24 (64%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo17:36
xG 0.41–0.51 (45%)attempts 11–17goals 1–0
- Edmundson – Parayko14:07
xG 0.57–0.85 (40%)attempts 11–20goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).