Sat, Feb 4, 2017·TD Garden, Boston
Toronto Maple Leafs 6, Boston Bruins 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 19 | 311 | 26 | 626 |
| BOS | 111 | 214 | 216 | 541 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:17BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Zdeno Chara · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 11:15TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Nazem Kadri, Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–1
- P2 8:31TORJames van RiemsdykAssists: Mitch Marner · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 9:09TORWilliam NylanderUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–1
- P2 10:17TORWilliam NylanderPPAssists: Connor Brown, Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–1
- P2 10:55BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Zdeno Chara · Wrist, 0.40 xG4–2
- P2 15:53BOSTorey KrugPPAssists: David Pastrnak, Ryan Spooner · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–3
- P3 10:06BOSRyan SpoonerAssists: Zdeno Chara, Dominic Moore · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–4
- P3 15:15TORConnor BrownAssists: Zach Hyman, Auston Matthews · Snap, 0.12 xG5–4
- P3 17:06BOSPatrice BergeronPPAssists: Torey Krug, Brad Marchand · Backhand, 0.11 xG5–5
- P3 18:24TORJames van RiemsdykGWGAssists: Tyler Bozak, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.02 xG6–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:25TORNazem Kadri: Cross checking2 min
- P1 3:25BOSMatt Beleskey: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:00TORMartin Marincin: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:08BOSDominic Moore: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:01TORMartin Marincin: Holding2 min
- P2 9:33BOSAdam McQuaid: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 12:46TORMatt Martin: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 12:46BOSAdam McQuaid: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:20TORTyler Bozak: Interference2 min
- P3 2:19TORMartin Marincin: Holding2 min
- P3 16:41TORLeo Komarov: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Moore
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Hyman – Brown – Matthews8:42
xG 0.20–0.21 (50%)attempts 6–11goals 1–1
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner11:14
xG 0.50–0.91 (35%)attempts 17–15goals 2–1
- Martin – Smith – Soshnikov4:13
xG 0.02–0.57 (3%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
- Komarov – Kadri – Nylander10:39
xG 0.14–0.76 (15%)attempts 3–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Carrick14:03
xG 0.65–0.35 (65%)attempts 17–11goals 2–0
- Polak – Gardiner3:27
xG 0.20–0.20 (50%)attempts 1–4goals 1–0
- Rielly – Zaitsev15:43
xG 0.45–0.99 (31%)attempts 17–16goals 2–3
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak10:58
xG 0.87–0.11 (88%)attempts 17–8goals 2–1
- Moore – Spooner – Schaller3:52
xG 0.47–0.29 (62%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Beleskey – Nash – Czarnik8:32
xG 0.48–0.32 (60%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Nash – Spooner – Czarnik2:29
xG 0.14–0.02 (88%)attempts 4–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Carlo12:18
xG 1.05–0.35 (75%)attempts 20–13goals 3–1
- McQuaid – Krug12:14
xG 0.55–0.24 (69%)attempts 16–10goals 0–2
- Miller – Krug3:59
xG 0.36–0.20 (64%)attempts 9–1goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).