Sat, Feb 4, 2017·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Ottawa Senators 0, Buffalo Sabres 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 08 | 013 | 016 | 037 |
| BUF | 110 | 17 | 29 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:11BUFKyle OkposoGWGAssists: Justin Falk, Josh Gorges · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 16:51BUFRyan O'ReillyAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Tyler Ennis · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–2
- P3 5:53BUFSam ReinhartAssists: Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.29 xG0–3
- P3 10:51BUFMarcus FolignoAssists: Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 17:53BUFKyle Okposo: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:08BUFMarcus Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:08OTTMark Borowiecki: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:24BUFJosh Gorges: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:22BUFEvander Kane: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:22OTTMark Borowiecki: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:22BUFEvander Kane: Misconduct10 min
- P3 13:22OTTMark Borowiecki: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Brassard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPyatt – Smith – Pageau3:55
xG 0.33–0.06 (84%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Ryan – Turris – Hoffman4:25
xG 0.22–0.08 (74%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Brassard – Smith – Stone7:02
xG 0.34–0.22 (61%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- Brassard – Wingels – Stone2:15
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBorowiecki – Wideman6:20
xG 0.40–0.03 (93%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Wideman2:35
xG 0.12–0.05 (70%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Phaneuf – Karlsson3:00
xG 0.04–0.02 (67%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Reinhart – Eichel2:01
xG 0.45–0.02 (95%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Foligno – Reinhart – Eichel10:32
xG 0.66–0.40 (62%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Gionta – Kane – Girgensons10:41
xG 0.21–0.22 (50%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
- Moulson – Okposo – O'Reilly6:29
xG 0.17–0.23 (43%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Falk12:56
xG 1.07–0.39 (73%)attempts 15–13goals 2–0
- Franson – McCabe15:10
xG 0.41–0.42 (49%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Kulikov – Ristolainen18:58
xG 0.40–0.60 (40%)attempts 11–29goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).