Sat, Feb 4, 2017·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Detroit Red Wings 1, Nashville Predators 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 18 | 07 | 04 | 119 |
| NSH | 09 | 016 | 017 | 042 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:30DETMike GreenGWGAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Anthony Mantha · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:05NSHHarry Zolnierczyk: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:13NSHRyan Johansen: Holding2 min
- P3 0:11DETJonathan Ericsson: Holding2 min
- P3 2:21NSHColin Wilson: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:10DETBrendan Smith: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:49NSHAustin Watson: Interference2 min
- P3 7:45NSHFilip Forsberg: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:53DETTomas Jurco: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 16:30NSHRyan Johansen: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:30DETJustin Abdelkader: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:00NSHJames Neal: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sheahan won the faceoff against Jarnkrok
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Zetterberg – Nyquist – Mantha9:26
xG 0.21–0.19 (51%)attempts 8–14goals 1–0
- Abdelkader – Jurco – Glendening6:38
xG 0.05–0.16 (24%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Vanek – Helm – Athanasiou7:06
xG 0.14–0.36 (28%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Tatar – Sheahan – Larkin6:16
xG 0.02–0.51 (4%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – Ouellet10:37
xG 0.48–0.27 (63%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Green – DeKeyser13:02
xG 0.40–0.49 (45%)attempts 8–14goals 1–0
- Ericsson – Jensen15:22
xG 0.11–0.69 (14%)attempts 6–19goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson12:10
xG 0.85–0.22 (79%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Fisher – Smith – Watson7:17
xG 0.18–0.13 (58%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Neal – Wilson – Jarnkrok9:28
xG 0.10–0.09 (52%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- McLeod – Zolnierczyk – Sissons5:09
xG 0.12–0.17 (41%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Josi12:13
xG 0.27–0.14 (66%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Ellis – Irwin10:56
xG 0.25–0.18 (58%)attempts 14–5goals 0–1
- Subban – Ekholm14:47
xG 0.70–0.77 (48%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).