Sun, Feb 5, 2017·Madison Square Garden, New York
Calgary Flames 3, New York Rangers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 113 | 08 | 211 | 332 |
| NYR | 115 | 06 | 311 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:59CGYDougie HamiltonPPAssists: Mikael Backlund, Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 8:54NYRRick NashPPAssists: Derek Stepan, Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–1
- P3 1:54NYRMichael GrabnerAssists: Brady Skjei, J.T. Miller · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 4:40CGYTroy BrouwerAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 8:20NYRChris KreiderAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Dan Girardi · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–3
- P3 11:32NYRJesper FastGWGAssists: J.T. Miller, Michael Grabner · Snap, 0.27 xG2–4
- P3 12:33CGYMatthew TkachukAssists: Mikael Backlund · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:26NYRDan Girardi: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 7:43CGYMatt Stajan: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 4:50CGYKris Versteeg: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:50NYRPavel Buchnevich: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:50CGYKris Versteeg: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 9:08NYRKevin Klein: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:08CGYMicheal Ferland: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestVersteeg – Chiasson – Bennett8:54
xG 0.72–0.12 (85%)attempts 17–5goals 0–1
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk13:42
xG 1.03–0.90 (53%)attempts 19–11goals 1–0
- Stajan – Bouma – Ferland8:14
xG 0.14–0.09 (62%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Gaudreau – Monahan12:58
xG 0.32–0.30 (52%)attempts 15–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Hamilton19:40
xG 0.94–0.28 (77%)attempts 26–12goals 1–0
- Engelland – Jokipakka11:29
xG 0.90–0.55 (62%)attempts 20–15goals 1–1
- Wideman – Brodie20:59
xG 0.72–0.94 (43%)attempts 16–15goals 0–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestGrabner – Fast – Miller10:35
xG 0.69–0.44 (61%)attempts 15–12goals 2–1
- Nash – Stepan – Vesey12:54
xG 0.16–0.26 (38%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Kreider – Zuccarello – Zibanejad13:10
xG 0.89–1.12 (44%)attempts 11–17goals 1–1
- Lindberg – Puempel – Buchnevich5:26
xG 0.08–0.47 (15%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – McDonagh18:40
xG 1.12–0.57 (66%)attempts 22–17goals 1–1
- McDonagh – Holden2:00
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Holden – Skjei3:30
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).