Tue, Feb 7, 2017·Madison Square Garden, New York
Anaheim Ducks 1, New York Rangers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 016 | 116 | 012 | 144 |
| NYR | 16 | 17 | 27 | 420 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:01NYROscar LindbergAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Marc Staal · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 1:06NYRMats ZuccarelloGWGAssists: Chris Kreider, Brady Skjei · Snap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 6:14ANAJakob SilfverbergAssists: Andrew Cogliano · Snap, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 3:45NYRMichael GrabnerAssists: J.T. Miller, Brady Skjei · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 19:41NYRMichael GrabnerENAssists: J.T. Miller, Kevin Hayes · Wrist, 0.69 xG1–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:06ANALogan Shaw: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:38NYRBrady Skjei: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 2:48ANAJoseph Cramarossa: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:48NYRJimmy Vesey: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:23NYRChris Kreider: Holding2 min
- P3 9:53NYRKevin Hayes: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg10:01
xG 0.44–0.09 (84%)attempts 17–3goals 1–1
- Vermette – Ritchie – Kase7:28
xG 0.29–0.18 (62%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Thompson – Cramarossa – Shaw5:30
xG 0.08–0.10 (46%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Rakell11:50
xG 0.34–0.54 (38%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – Montour11:42
xG 0.44–0.21 (67%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Bieksa – Fowler15:05
xG 0.70–0.58 (55%)attempts 26–17goals 1–2
- Manson – Theodore11:43
xG 0.50–0.43 (54%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Grabner – Hayes – Miller8:54
xG 0.32–0.27 (54%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Lindberg – Fast – Buchnevich8:23
xG 0.33–0.31 (52%)attempts 6–7goals 1–1
- Nash – Stepan – Vesey9:36
xG 0.18–0.26 (40%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Kreider – Zuccarello – Zibanejad8:31
xG 0.28–0.42 (40%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Girardi – McDonagh15:47
xG 0.44–0.51 (46%)attempts 16–19goals 0–0
- Staal – Holden13:39
xG 0.41–0.51 (44%)attempts 7–21goals 0–0
- Klein – Skjei13:12
xG 0.25–0.44 (37%)attempts 6–12goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).