Tue, Feb 7, 2017·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Calgary Flames 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 07 | 27 | 09 | 07 | 1 | 330 |
| PIT | 07 | 014 | 212 | 00 | 0 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 16:19CGYMicheal FerlandUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 18:03CGYMichael FrolikAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–0
- P3 5:51PITChris KunitzAssists: Sidney Crosby, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 15:06PITJake GuentzelAssists: Ian Cole · Snap, 0.11 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. PIT Phil Kessel stopped
- 2. CGY Kris Versteeg scored
- 3. PIT Sidney Crosby stopped
- 4. CGY Sean Monahan stopped
- 5. PIT Kris Letang stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:21CGYSean Monahan: Cross checking2 min
- P1 7:25PITJustin Schultz: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:21CGYTJ Brodie: Cross checking2 min
- P1 14:21PITJake Guentzel: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 19:14PITIan Cole: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:51CGYJohnny Gaudreau: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:59PITKris Letang: Roughing2 min
- OT 1:49PITTrevor Daley: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBrouwer – Gaudreau – Monahan9:28
xG 0.47–0.30 (61%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk11:14
xG 0.40–0.27 (59%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Stajan – Ferland – Hathaway9:18
xG 0.26–0.47 (36%)attempts 6–13goals 1–1
- Versteeg – Chiasson – Bennett8:13
xG 0.08–0.36 (19%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Wideman – Brodie15:43
xG 0.44–0.42 (51%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
- Engelland – Brodie2:03
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Engelland – Kulak6:19
xG 0.24–0.35 (40%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestHornqvist – Wilson – Rowney6:19
xG 0.36–0.08 (81%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Cullen – Hornqvist – Rowney3:16
xG 0.27–0.03 (89%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Cullen – Fehr – Kuhnhackl5:30
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Kessel – Bonino – Guentzel11:54
xG 0.44–0.54 (45%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Schultz14:57
xG 0.97–0.39 (72%)attempts 20–9goals 1–1
- Daley – Maatta12:37
xG 0.24–0.23 (51%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Letang – Dumoulin14:51
xG 0.30–0.49 (38%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).