Tue, Feb 7, 2017·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Minnesota Wild 4, Winnipeg Jets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 211 | 16 | 18 | 425 |
| WPG | 012 | 216 | 012 | 240 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:51MINNino NiederreiterAssists: Charlie Coyle, Jason Pominville · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 19:19MINJason PominvilleAssists: Charlie Coyle · Slap, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 2:33MINJason PominvilleGWGAssists: Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–0
- P2 5:35WPGBryan LittleAssists: Jacob Trouba, Joel Armia · Backhand, 0.16 xG3–1
- P2 16:42WPGJoel ArmiaAssists: Shawn Matthias, Adam Lowry · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–2
- P3 18:40MINNino NiederreiterENAssists: Jason Pominville, Marco Scandella · Wrist, 0.65 xG4–2
Penalties (3)
- P1 12:37WPGDrew Stafford: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 6:53MINCharlie Coyle: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:48WPGDustin Byfuglien: Penalty shot throwing object at puck0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Haula – Niederreiter4:11
xG 0.21–0.12 (63%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Staal – Parise – Tuch7:31
xG 0.32–0.25 (56%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Pominville – Coyle – Niederreiter6:39
xG 0.22–0.23 (49%)attempts 10–5goals 3–1
- Staal – Parise – Coyle6:02
xG 0.23–0.27 (46%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Folin8:34
xG 0.40–0.18 (69%)attempts 8–7goals 1–1
- Scandella – Dumba16:19
xG 0.65–0.62 (51%)attempts 18–14goals 1–1
- Suter – Spurgeon23:18
xG 0.32–1.04 (24%)attempts 17–31goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Perreault – Scheifele6:23
xG 0.33–0.02 (94%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Laine2:04
xG 0.19–0.03 (86%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Stafford – Perreault – Petan2:24
xG 0.17–0.02 (89%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Copp8:29
xG 0.25–0.24 (51%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Morrissey11:22
xG 0.81–0.36 (69%)attempts 18–10goals 1–0
- Stuart – Postma6:34
xG 0.40–0.10 (80%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien16:10
xG 0.36–0.20 (64%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).