Thu, Feb 9, 2017·Madison Square Garden, New York
Nashville Predators 3, New York Rangers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 110 | 110 | 117 | 337 |
| NYR | 08 | 212 | 210 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:39NSHCody McLeodAssists: P.K. Subban, Austin Watson · Wrist, 0.34 xG1–0
- P2 3:50NSHCalle JarnkrokPPAssists: Mike Fisher, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–0
- P2 8:12NYRMichael GrabnerAssists: Kevin Hayes · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 14:58NYRJ.T. MillerAssists: Kevin Hayes · Snap, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 5:36NYRChris KreiderAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Mika Zibanejad · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 16:00NYRJ.T. MillerGWGAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Kevin Hayes · Deflected, 0.17 xG2–4
- P3 17:59NSHRoman JosiPPAssists: Ryan Johansen, Ryan Ellis · Snap, 0.03 xG3–4
Penalties (4)
- P2 3:38NYRRyan McDonagh: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 9:50NSHRoman Josi: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:09NYRBrady Skjei: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:49NYRBrady Skjei: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hayes won the faceoff against Fiddler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestFiddler – McLeod – Watson6:51
xG 0.46–0.04 (92%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Wilson – Jarnkrok – Arvidsson12:22
xG 0.44–0.43 (51%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
- Neal – Johansen – Forsberg13:44
xG 0.73–0.83 (47%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
- Fisher – Smith – Aberg11:11
xG 0.19–0.50 (27%)attempts 12–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Ekholm19:10
xG 1.07–0.29 (79%)attempts 21–12goals 1–1
- Josi – Ellis17:22
xG 0.67–0.67 (50%)attempts 16–13goals 0–2
- Weber – Irwin11:53
xG 0.11–0.79 (13%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Zuccarello – Zibanejad15:06
xG 0.93–0.65 (59%)attempts 12–17goals 1–0
- Nash – Stepan – Vesey10:15
xG 0.48–0.47 (50%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Grabner – Hayes – Miller12:57
xG 0.62–0.62 (50%)attempts 8–17goals 3–0
- Lindberg – Fast – Buchnevich8:04
xG 0.12–0.18 (40%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – Skjei16:02
xG 0.76–0.36 (68%)attempts 10–13goals 2–0
- McDonagh – Holden19:23
xG 1.10–0.92 (54%)attempts 21–17goals 1–0
- Staal – Clendening14:24
xG 0.15–0.55 (22%)attempts 7–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).