Thu, Feb 9, 2017·Verizon Center, Washington
Detroit Red Wings 3, Washington Capitals 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 26 | 06 | 15 | 317 |
| WSH | 213 | 112 | 36 | 631 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:57WSHMarcus JohanssonAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Justin Williams · Snap, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 13:30DETAndreas AthanasiouAssists: Ryan Sproul, Thomas Vanek · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 16:23DETAndreas AthanasiouPPAssists: Thomas Vanek · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P1 18:30WSHBrett ConnollyAssists: Lars Eller, Karl Alzner · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
- P2 1:16WSHT.J. OshieAssists: John Carlson, Nicklas Backstrom · Snap, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 1:25DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Anthony Mantha, Gustav Nyquist · Backhand, 0.07 xG3–3
- P3 4:15WSHJohn CarlsonGWGAssists: T.J. Oshie · Slap, 0.04 xG3–4
- P3 14:18WSHT.J. OshiePPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Marcus Johansson · Snap, 0.09 xG3–5
- P3 18:28WSHNicklas BackstromENAssists: Jay Beagle · Wrist, 0.65 xG3–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 11:25WSHNate Schmidt: Holding2 min
- P1 11:25DETAnthony Mantha: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:51WSHNicklas Backstrom: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 13:44WSHNicklas Backstrom: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:34DETBrendan Smith: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eller won the faceoff against Sheahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Nyquist – Mantha11:18
xG 0.43–0.08 (84%)attempts 11–3goals 0–1
- Tatar – Sheahan – Larkin10:39
xG 0.28–0.07 (80%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Abdelkader – Jurco – Glendening5:48
xG 0.05–0.36 (12%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
- Vanek – Helm – Athanasiou5:44
xG 0.00–1.03 (0%)attempts 0–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Smith7:03
xG 0.25–0.00 (99%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Smith – Jensen6:07
xG 0.30–0.21 (58%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Jensen – DeKeyser5:07
xG 0.08–0.15 (33%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOshie – Eller – Connolly2:21
xG 0.37–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Williams – Johansson – Kuznetsov12:40
xG 0.61–0.33 (65%)attempts 12–5goals 1–1
- Winnik – Beagle – Wilson11:30
xG 0.36–0.19 (66%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Eller – Connolly – Burakovsky4:13
xG 0.36–0.24 (60%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Schmidt13:12
xG 1.14–0.27 (81%)attempts 16–5goals 1–1
- Alzner – Carlson17:28
xG 0.88–0.37 (71%)attempts 19–11goals 2–0
- Niskanen – Orlov17:23
xG 0.17–0.59 (23%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).