Sat, Feb 11, 2017·Madison Square Garden, New York
Colorado Avalanche 2, New York Rangers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 15 | 112 | 017 | 234 |
| NYR | 110 | 09 | 311 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:26NYRKevin KleinAssists: Brady Skjei, Oscar Lindberg · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 19:44COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Fedor Tyutin · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 3:01COLJohn MitchellAssists: Blake Comeau, Jarome Iginla · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–1
- P3 2:50NYRKevin KleinAssists: Jesper Fast, Oscar Lindberg · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 5:36NYRRick NashGWGAssists: Derek Stepan, Ryan McDonagh · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–3
- P3 18:22NYRKevin HayesENAssists: Michael Grabner, J.T. Miller · Wrist, 0.63 xG2–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 14:24NYRNick Holden: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:08COLMikko Rantanen: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:22COLPatrick Wiercioch: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:25COLCarl Soderberg: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hayes won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestSoderberg – Colborne – Martinsen6:25
xG 0.43–0.21 (68%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Iginla – Mitchell – Comeau12:38
xG 0.57–0.36 (61%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen13:38
xG 0.47–0.49 (49%)attempts 15–11goals 1–1
- Duchene – Nieto – Grigorenko12:31
xG 0.17–0.54 (24%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Zadorov14:26
xG 0.75–0.19 (80%)attempts 18–9goals 0–1
- Tyutin – Goloubef2:59
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Goloubef – Barberio11:52
xG 0.26–0.52 (33%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestNash – Stepan – Vesey7:30
xG 0.34–0.12 (73%)attempts 8–6goals 1–2
- Kreider – Zuccarello – Zibanejad11:51
xG 0.40–0.32 (55%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Grabner – Hayes – Miller12:03
xG 0.33–0.36 (48%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Lindberg – Fast – Buchnevich6:59
xG 0.18–0.31 (37%)attempts 6–7goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Clendening12:49
xG 0.61–0.37 (62%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- McDonagh – Holden14:29
xG 0.51–0.32 (61%)attempts 12–13goals 1–1
- Holden – Skjei2:00
xG 0.20–0.08 (70%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).