Sat, Feb 11, 2017·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Arizona Coyotes 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 07 | 112 | 210 | 02 | 331 |
| ARI | 07 | 29 | 18 | 11 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:41PITJosh ArchibaldAssists: Eric Fehr, Tom Kuhnhackl · Backhand, 0.21 xG1–0
- P2 6:40ARITobias RiederUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 9:00ARIMartin HanzalPPAssists: Radim Vrbata, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Backhand, 0.40 xG1–2
- P3 3:36ARIMartin HanzalAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Max Domi · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 14:38PITJosh ArchibaldSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–3
- P3 19:45PITPhil KesselAssists: Jake Guentzel, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–3
- OT 4:38ARIConnor MurphyGWGAssists: Alexander Burmistrov · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:40PITKris Letang: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 16:14ARIMartin Hanzal: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 3:26ARILuke Schenn: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:57PITBrian Dumoulin: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 9:35ARIJordan Martinook: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:44PITJustin Schultz: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:26PITSidney Crosby: Tripping2 min
- OT 1:51ARIMax Domi: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Hanzal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestHornqvist – Wilson – Rowney8:43
xG 0.86–0.21 (80%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Fehr – Kuhnhackl – Archibald6:35
xG 0.54–0.09 (85%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Kunitz – Crosby – Guentzel13:38
xG 0.48–0.79 (38%)attempts 12–13goals 0–2
- Cullen – Kessel – Bonino9:30
xG 0.06–0.56 (10%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Dumoulin14:46
xG 1.17–0.70 (63%)attempts 18–15goals 0–0
- Cole – Schultz13:40
xG 0.31–0.13 (70%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Daley – Maatta11:06
xG 0.54–0.75 (42%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestMcGinn – Burmistrov – Rieder9:32
xG 0.78–0.39 (67%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Vrbata – Hanzal – Domi13:04
xG 0.48–0.36 (57%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- White – Martinook – Crouse6:23
xG 0.01–0.22 (5%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Doan – Perlini – Dvorak8:23
xG 0.28–0.89 (24%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Ekman-Larsson15:16
xG 0.44–0.18 (71%)attempts 12–10goals 2–0
- Goligoski – Stone15:32
xG 1.16–1.38 (46%)attempts 16–20goals 0–1
- Connauton – Murphy11:11
xG 0.17–0.50 (26%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).