Sun, Feb 12, 2017·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Vancouver Canucks 4, Buffalo Sabres 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 211 | 212 | 08 | 431 |
| BUF | 210 | 06 | 012 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:58BUFTyler EnnisAssists: Evan Rodrigues · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 9:07VANBo HorvatPPAssists: Ben Hutton, Markus Granlund · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 16:37VANMichael ChaputAssists: Daniel Sedin · Slap, 0.15 xG2–1
- P1 19:44BUFKyle OkposoAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–2
- P2 5:00VANAlexandre BurrowsGWGAssists: Troy Stecher, Bo Horvat · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–2
- P2 15:33VANMichael ChaputAssists: Alexander Edler, Alexandre Burrows · Slap, 0.13 xG4–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 7:15BUFRobin Lehner: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 7:15BUFJustin Falk: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:15VANAlexandre Burrows: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:33BUFEvander Kane: Elbowing2 min
- P2 7:01BUFTyler Ennis: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 13:31BUFJake McCabe: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:02VANAlexander Edler: Holding2 min
- P3 4:00BUFKyle Okposo: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:03BUFJack Eichel: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:36VANLuca Sbisa: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:26VANNikita Tryamkin: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Sutter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBurrows – Hansen – Chaput2:03
xG 0.16–0.03 (84%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Skille – Chaput – Boucher3:57
xG 0.17–0.09 (66%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Granlund7:26
xG 0.20–0.17 (54%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Burrows – Hansen – Horvat7:12
xG 0.41–0.41 (50%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Stecher10:04
xG 0.62–0.31 (67%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Edler – Tryamkin2:40
xG 0.02–0.01 (76%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Hutton – Tryamkin8:12
xG 0.32–0.38 (45%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – O'Reilly – Bailey7:43
xG 0.35–0.13 (73%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Kane – Reinhart – Eichel8:49
xG 0.31–0.35 (47%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Gionta – Foligno – Rodrigues3:25
xG 0.02–0.24 (6%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Ristolainen13:14
xG 0.91–0.42 (68%)attempts 10–12goals 2–0
- Gorges – Kulikov11:24
xG 0.30–0.20 (60%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Falk – Fedun8:25
xG 0.31–0.31 (50%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).