Mon, Feb 13, 2017·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
New York Rangers 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 08 | 16 | 29 | 323 |
| CBJ | 17 | 013 | 112 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:12CBJBrandon DubinskyAssists: Brandon Saad, Seth Jones · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 0:12NYRDan GirardiSHAssists: Kevin Hayes, J.T. Miller · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P3 4:49NYRKevin HayesUnassisted · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–1
- P3 11:53CBJNick FolignoAssists: David Savard · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
- P3 13:28NYRJimmy VeseyGWGAssists: Derek Stepan, Nick Holden · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:12NYRPavel Buchnevich: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 11:25CBJJosh Anderson: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:40CBJSam Gagner: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:30NYRKevin Klein: Holding2 min
- P2 3:45NYROscar Lindberg: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 4:30CBJBoone Jenner: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:11NYRJ.T. Miller: Boarding2 min
- P2 19:58CBJDavid Savard: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:46CBJZach Werenski: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubinsky won the faceoff against Hayes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestGrabner – Lindberg – Fast2:54
xG 0.28–0.01 (97%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Nash – Stepan – Vesey3:06
xG 0.24–0.04 (85%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Nash – Zibanejad – Vesey3:41
xG 0.13–0.03 (82%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Nash – Zibanejad – Buchnevich2:26
xG 0.03–0.05 (35%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – Skjei13:06
xG 0.72–0.46 (61%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Girardi – McDonagh11:21
xG 0.47–0.43 (52%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Staal – Holden12:05
xG 0.45–0.49 (48%)attempts 9–13goals 1–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner11:03
xG 0.67–0.25 (73%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Foligno – Saad – Wennberg11:45
xG 0.57–0.32 (64%)attempts 16–4goals 1–0
- Calvert – Karlsson – Anderson6:46
xG 0.11–0.34 (24%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Werenski13:34
xG 0.74–0.43 (63%)attempts 21–9goals 0–0
- Murray – Nutivaara8:09
xG 0.24–0.18 (58%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Johnson – Savard13:06
xG 0.42–0.55 (44%)attempts 14–8goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).