Tue, Feb 14, 2017·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
New York Islanders 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 012 | 116 | 06 | 134 |
| TOR | 210 | 111 | 420 | 741 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:36TORJosh LeivoUnassisted · Snap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 19:28TORNazem KadriGWGAssists: Nikita Zaitsev, William Nylander · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 9:26TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Nazem Kadri, Roman Polak · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–3
- P2 16:55NYIJason ChimeraUnassisted · Snap, 0.31 xG1–3
- P3 5:41TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: Leo Komarov, Josh Leivo · Backhand, 0.29 xG1–4
- P3 7:16TORTyler BozakAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–5
- P3 11:51TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Connor Brown · Snap, 0.23 xG1–6
- P3 15:40TORMatt HunwickAssists: Josh Leivo, Ben Smith · Tip-in, 0.01 xG1–7
Penalties (10)
- P1 7:29NYINikolay Kulemin: Cross checking2 min
- P1 15:10TORConnor Brown: Holding2 min
- P2 3:09NYIAnders Lee: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:11TORMitch Marner: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:30TORRoman Polak: Interference2 min
- P2 16:55TORMatt Hunwick: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 17:51TORNazem Kadri: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:04NYINikolay Kulemin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:06TORConnor Carrick: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:06NYIRyan Strome: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Ladd – Quine2:13
xG 0.55–0.07 (88%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Ladd – Kulemin – Cizikas4:38
xG 0.10–0.07 (59%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Bailey – Tavares – Lee11:18
xG 0.57–0.60 (49%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Chimera – Gionta – Quine2:47
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Seidenberg – de Haan14:11
xG 0.63–0.84 (43%)attempts 13–18goals 0–1
- Boychuk – Leddy14:04
xG 0.48–0.98 (33%)attempts 12–13goals 0–2
- Hickey – Pelech12:13
xG 0.36–1.02 (26%)attempts 8–17goals 0–2
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Brown – Matthews10:53
xG 1.04–0.33 (76%)attempts 18–10goals 1–0
- Komarov – Kadri – Nylander10:58
xG 0.76–0.44 (63%)attempts 10–7goals 2–0
- Martin – Smith – Leivo8:04
xG 0.38–0.08 (83%)attempts 10–6goals 2–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner11:16
xG 0.57–0.68 (46%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Zaitsev13:00
xG 1.02–0.64 (62%)attempts 11–12goals 2–0
- Gardiner – Carrick16:06
xG 0.86–0.52 (62%)attempts 23–10goals 0–0
- Polak – Hunwick13:23
xG 0.73–0.47 (61%)attempts 14–13goals 3–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).