Tue, Feb 14, 2017·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Arizona Coyotes 2, Edmonton Oilers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 92% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 112 | 14 | 09 | 225 |
| EDM | 08 | 315 | 210 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:44ARIJosh JoorisAssists: Jordan Martinook, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 2:51EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Milan Lucic, Oscar Klefbom · Backhand, 0.32 xG1–1
- P2 3:22EDMMatt HendricksAssists: Iiro Pakarinen, Mark Letestu · Wrist, 0.37 xG1–2
- P2 3:33ARIMartin HanzalAssists: Max Domi, Radim Vrbata · Snap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 10:24EDMMark LetestuPPGWGAssists: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl · Snap, 0.15 xG2–3
- P3 2:43EDMOscar KlefbomAssists: Anton Slepyshev, Leon Draisaitl · Snap, 0.18 xG2–4
- P3 6:29EDMPatrick MaroonAssists: Oscar Klefbom, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.40 xG2–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:12ARIAlex Goligoski: Interference2 min
- P1 13:08EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Holding2 min
- P2 2:32ARIConnor Murphy: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:47ARILuke Schenn: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 9:45ARIAlex Goligoski: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 12:13EDMOscar Klefbom: Holding2 min
- P2 17:30EDMMatt Benning: Holding2 min
- P2 17:56EDMEric Gryba: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 13:54EDMEric Gryba: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hanzal won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- Doan – Perlini – Dvorak9:49
xG 0.20–0.35 (37%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- White – Martinook – Jooris9:01
xG 0.31–0.81 (28%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
- Vrbata – Hanzal – Domi11:14
xG 0.23–1.06 (18%)attempts 10–14goals 1–1
- McGinn – Burmistrov – Rieder10:51
xG 0.41–1.39 (23%)attempts 8–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Connauton2:14
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Murphy2:25
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Murphy2:05
xG 0.00–0.25 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Eberle – McDavid12:37
xG 1.83–0.51 (78%)attempts 20–9goals 1–0
- Lucic – Slepyshev – Draisaitl12:53
xG 1.00–0.34 (74%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
- Hendricks – Letestu – Pakarinen6:22
xG 0.42–0.20 (68%)attempts 4–5goals 1–1
- Kassian – Nugent-Hopkins – Caggiula9:50
xG 0.35–0.16 (68%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Klefbom15:44
xG 2.72–0.36 (88%)attempts 26–18goals 3–1
- Gryba – Davidson14:06
xG 0.82–0.19 (81%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Sekera – Benning12:05
xG 0.09–0.66 (12%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 92% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).