Wed, Feb 15, 2017·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Philadelphia Flyers 1, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 115 | 010 | 09 | 134 |
| CGY | 18 | 15 | 110 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:30PHINick CousinsAssists: Matt Read · Snap, 0.26 xG1–0
- P1 4:28CGYMatthew TkachukAssists: Mikael Backlund, Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–1
- P2 12:45CGYTJ BrodieGWGAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Deryk Engelland · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 19:21CGYMark GiordanoENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.43 xG1–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 7:41CGYAlex Chiasson: Spearing5 min
- P1 7:41CGYAlex Chiasson: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 10:33CGYSean Monahan: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 13:53PHINick Cousins: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 17:10CGYSam Bennett: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:34CGYKris Versteeg: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:41PHIPierre-Edouard Bellemare: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:41CGYMicheal Ferland: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:37PHIMichal Neuvirth: Delaying game illegal play by goalie2 min
- P3 19:59PHIWayne Simmonds: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:59PHIWayne Simmonds: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestRead – Cousins – Raffl9:58
xG 0.62–0.15 (80%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Voracek – Weal – Couturier10:19
xG 0.36–0.09 (79%)attempts 12–4goals 0–1
- VandeVelde – Bellemare – Lyubimov4:52
xG 0.22–0.07 (76%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Giroux – Simmonds – Schenn12:19
xG 0.19–0.47 (29%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestManning – Gudas17:09
xG 0.72–0.16 (82%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Streit – Gostisbehere12:19
xG 0.75–0.36 (68%)attempts 19–12goals 1–0
- MacDonald – Provorov14:26
xG 0.23–0.59 (28%)attempts 12–13goals 0–2
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Backlund – Tkachuk9:34
xG 0.50–0.26 (66%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Stajan – Bouma – Ferland6:15
xG 0.12–0.02 (87%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Versteeg – Gaudreau – Monahan3:46
xG 0.10–0.04 (70%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Ferland – Bennett2:06
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Hamilton18:01
xG 0.58–0.35 (62%)attempts 20–14goals 1–0
- Engelland – Brodie16:15
xG 0.42–0.81 (34%)attempts 9–22goals 1–0
- Wideman – Kulak7:26
xG 0.09–0.54 (14%)attempts 3–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).