Thu, Feb 16, 2017·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Arizona Coyotes 5, Los Angeles Kings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 29 | 05 | 38 | 522 |
| LAK | 011 | 012 | 321 | 344 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:51ARIBrendan PerliniPPAssists: Radim Vrbata, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 5:07ARITobias RiederAssists: Jordan Martinook, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–0
- P3 8:38LAKTanner PearsonAssists: Jeff Carter, Dustin Brown · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–1
- P3 9:55ARIBrendan PerliniAssists: Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 11:07LAKDustin BrownAssists: Tanner Pearson · Wrist, 0.33 xG3–2
- P3 14:08ARIJordan MartinookSHGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.02 xG4–2
- P3 18:35ARIJordan MartinookENAssists: Christian Dvorak, Josh Jooris · Wrist, 0.64 xG5–2
- P3 19:37LAKTanner PearsonPPAssists: Anze Kopitar, Jake Muzzin · Wrist, 0.13 xG5–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:33LAKJeff Carter: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 8:35LAKBrayden McNabb: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:11LAKTanner Pearson: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:11ARIMichael Stone: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:33LAKAlec Martinez: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:26ARIMike Smith: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:03ARIChristian Dvorak: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:20ARIShane Doan: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Hanzal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- Doan – Perlini – Dvorak9:54
xG 0.45–0.40 (53%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
- Vrbata – Hanzal – Domi9:58
xG 0.34–0.57 (38%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Burmistrov – Rieder – Jooris10:16
xG 0.03–0.45 (7%)attempts 3–14goals 0–0
- White – Holland – Martinook8:33
xG 0.33–1.02 (25%)attempts 5–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Connauton – Murphy12:27
xG 0.31–0.53 (37%)attempts 6–16goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Stone19:35
xG 0.47–1.05 (31%)attempts 16–25goals 2–1
- Schenn – Ekman-Larsson15:53
xG 0.53–1.16 (31%)attempts 8–24goals 0–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Brown – Pearson10:03
xG 1.67–0.08 (95%)attempts 25–6goals 2–1
- Kopitar – Toffoli – Kempe13:38
xG 0.70–0.48 (59%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Lewis – King – Shore7:14
xG 0.41–0.21 (66%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Clifford – Dowd8:45
xG 0.13–0.45 (23%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Forbort16:14
xG 1.41–0.51 (74%)attempts 26–10goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Martinez16:15
xG 0.78–0.30 (72%)attempts 23–11goals 0–1
- McNabb – LaDue8:48
xG 0.80–0.43 (65%)attempts 10–7goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).