Sat, Feb 18, 2017·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
St. Louis Blues 2, Buffalo Sabres 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 110 | 012 | 117 | 239 |
| BUF | 19 | 212 | 07 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:31STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Joel Edmundson · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 9:34BUFNick BaptisteAssists: Jack Eichel, Evander Kane · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 11:58BUFEvander KaneAssists: Zach Bogosian, Nick Baptiste · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 19:28BUFRyan O'ReillyPPGWGAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Kyle Okposo · Snap, 0.20 xG1–3
- P3 15:03STLScottie UpshallSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.18 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:19STLMagnus Paajarvi: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:12STLJake Allen: Delaying game illegal play by goalie2 min
- P1 13:12BUFJake McCabe: Holding2 min
- P2 4:06STLJori Lehtera: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:47STLKenny Agostino: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:02STLScottie Upshall: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:08BUFMatt Moulson: Interference2 min
- P3 14:26STLKevin Shattenkirk: Holding2 min
- P3 18:48BUFRobin Lehner: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lehtera won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Lehtera – Tarasenko11:37
xG 0.65–0.09 (88%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Paajarvi – Agostino – Barbashev9:06
xG 0.27–0.20 (57%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Berglund – Perron – Schwartz8:06
xG 0.20–0.25 (44%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Upshall – Brodziak – Reaves6:42
xG 0.07–0.17 (28%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Pietrangelo14:20
xG 0.61–0.30 (67%)attempts 18–8goals 0–1
- Shattenkirk – Parayko3:05
xG 0.15–0.03 (83%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Gunnarsson10:59
xG 0.12–0.08 (62%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestMoulson – Ennis – Deslauriers3:09
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Gionta – Foligno – Rodrigues5:48
xG 0.16–0.05 (77%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Moulson – Ennis – Eichel2:44
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Kane – Baptiste – Eichel8:45
xG 0.25–0.25 (51%)attempts 9–9goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestFranson – Bogosian13:02
xG 0.35–0.22 (61%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Gorges – Ristolainen3:37
xG 0.13–0.16 (45%)attempts 2–8goals 1–0
- Kulikov – McCabe2:03
xG 0.04–0.11 (28%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).