Sat, Feb 18, 2017·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Washington Capitals 2, Detroit Red Wings 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 010 | 111 | 111 | 04 | 1 | 236 |
| DET | 110 | 15 | 07 | 01 | 2 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:13DETFrans NielsenPPAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Niklas Kronwall · Wrist, 0.38 xG0–1
- P2 3:33DETTomas TatarAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Anthony Mantha · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–2
- P2 18:36WSHZachary SanfordAssists: Lars Eller · Snap, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 15:12WSHDaniel WinnikAssists: T.J. Oshie, Nicklas Backstrom · Deflected, 0.28 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. DET Thomas Vanek scored
- 2. WSH T.J. Oshie stopped
- 3. DET Frans Nielsen stopped
- 4. WSH Evgeny Kuznetsov scored
- 5. DET Andreas Athanasiou stopped
- 6. WSH Nicklas Backstrom stopped
- 7. DET Tomas Tatar stopped
- 8. WSH Brett Connolly stopped
- 9. DET Henrik Zetterberg scored
- 10. WSH Alex Ovechkin stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:49WSHMarcus Johansson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 9:12DETAnthony Mantha: Elbowing2 min
- P1 19:21DETRiley Sheahan: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P2 8:39WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:59DETDanny DeKeyser: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:31DETAndreas Athanasiou: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:58DETLuke Glendening: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:03WSHBrooks Orpik: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:03DETSteve Ott: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestEller – Connolly – Sanford9:16
xG 0.40–0.32 (56%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
- Williams – Johansson – Kuznetsov9:01
xG 0.65–0.65 (50%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Winnik – Beagle – Wilson10:21
xG 0.32–0.58 (35%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom10:50
xG 0.17–0.49 (26%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Orpik – Schmidt12:07
xG 0.53–0.49 (52%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Orlov14:49
xG 0.76–0.73 (51%)attempts 12–16goals 1–0
- Orpik – Alzner2:51
xG 0.20–0.22 (48%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestOtt – Sheahan – Glendening8:03
xG 0.36–0.08 (81%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Vanek – Athanasiou4:19
xG 0.29–0.11 (72%)attempts 7–1goals 0–1
- Zetterberg – Tatar – Mantha11:05
xG 0.50–0.37 (58%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Abdelkader – Helm – Larkin5:57
xG 0.24–0.45 (35%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – DeKeyser11:18
xG 0.91–0.60 (60%)attempts 15–11goals 0–1
- Kronwall – Smith9:42
xG 0.53–0.43 (55%)attempts 7–4goals 1–1
- Smith – DeKeyser4:01
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).