Sat, Feb 18, 2017·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Dallas Stars 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 27 | 115 | 011 | 04 | 337 |
| DAL | 211 | 08 | 18 | 11 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:07TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Brian Boyle, Jake Dotchin · Tip-in, 0.22 xG1–0
- P1 11:59TBLTyler JohnsonPPAssists: Brayden Point, Victor Hedman · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–0
- P1 12:50DALAntoine RousselAssists: Dan Hamhuis, Tyler Seguin · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–1
- P1 18:50DALAntoine RousselAssists: Tyler Seguin, Patrick Eaves · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 9:46TBLVictor HedmanPPAssists: Tyler Johnson, Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 4:40DALAntoine RousselAssists: Tyler Seguin, Patrick Sharp · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–3
- OT 3:47DALJamie BennGWGAssists: Cody Eakin · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 4:11TBLVladislav Namestnikov: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 10:40DALEsa Lindell: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:01DALDevin Shore: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 10:16TBLBraydon Coburn: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cracknell won the faceoff against Filppula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Boyle – Namestnikov3:51
xG 0.40–0.06 (86%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Killorn – Drouin – Point11:44
xG 0.28–0.11 (72%)attempts 19–5goals 0–0
- Dumont – Brown – Paquette8:19
xG 0.43–0.30 (59%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Johnson – Kucherov – Namestnikov10:51
xG 0.55–0.52 (51%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Sustr15:17
xG 0.83–0.68 (55%)attempts 20–19goals 0–1
- Hedman – Dotchin15:51
xG 0.85–0.77 (52%)attempts 19–14goals 1–0
- Stralman – Garrison17:08
xG 0.44–0.55 (44%)attempts 19–13goals 0–2
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSharp – Roussel – Seguin12:22
xG 0.51–0.29 (64%)attempts 18–13goals 1–0
- Korpikoski – Cracknell – Ritchie4:56
xG 0.13–0.19 (40%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Eaves – Benn – Eakin15:24
xG 0.54–0.69 (44%)attempts 14–19goals 0–0
- Spezza – Faksa – Shore11:39
xG 0.17–0.86 (17%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Benn14:32
xG 0.56–0.40 (59%)attempts 15–21goals 2–0
- Nemeth – Oleksiak13:42
xG 0.84–0.98 (46%)attempts 10–22goals 0–1
- Klingberg – Lindell19:10
xG 0.72–1.16 (38%)attempts 25–18goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).