Tue, Feb 21, 2017·Madison Square Garden, New York
Montréal Canadiens 3, New York Rangers 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 110 | 18 | 08 | 02 | 2 | 328 |
| NYR | 17 | 113 | 06 | 04 | 1 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:55MTLAndrew ShawAssists: Shea Weber, Alexei Emelin · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 10:03NYROscar LindbergAssists: Jesper Fast, Brady Skjei · Tip-in, 0.18 xG1–1
- P2 1:42MTLShea WeberPPAssists: Andrei Markov, Max Pacioretty · Slap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 9:26NYRRick NashAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Jimmy Vesey · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. NYR Mats Zuccarello scored
- 2. MTL Brian Flynn stopped
- 3. NYR Mika Zibanejad stopped
- 4. MTL Alexander Radulov scored
- 5. NYR Derek Stepan stopped
- 6. MTL Max Pacioretty stopped
- 7. NYR Jimmy Vesey stopped
- 8. MTL Alex Galchenyuk stopped
- 9. NYR J.T. Miller stopped
- 10. MTL Paul Byron scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:29MTLMichael McCarron: Illegal check to head2 min
- P1 15:00MTLAlexander Radulov: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:34NYRNick Holden: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 11:09MTLBrendan Gallagher: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 14:50NYRChris Kreider: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 13:56NYRMika Zibanejad: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:09MTLAndrew Shaw: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Hayes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPlekanec – Shaw – Lehkonen9:56
xG 0.70–0.51 (58%)attempts 14–7goals 1–1
- Byron – Gallagher – Galchenyuk9:16
xG 0.41–0.51 (44%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Flynn – McCarron6:00
xG 0.00–0.28 (0%)attempts 0–9goals 0–0
- Radulov – Pacioretty – Danault12:45
xG 0.24–0.58 (29%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Petry17:00
xG 0.71–0.36 (67%)attempts 17–10goals 0–1
- Pateryn – Beaulieu11:42
xG 0.61–0.58 (51%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Weber – Emelin15:40
xG 0.33–1.51 (18%)attempts 10–17goals 1–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestNash – Stepan – Vesey9:43
xG 1.15–0.54 (68%)attempts 15–11goals 1–1
- Lindberg – Fast – Buchnevich6:20
xG 0.58–0.09 (86%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Kreider – Zuccarello – Zibanejad10:22
xG 0.47–0.28 (63%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Grabner – Hayes – Miller12:26
xG 0.08–0.57 (12%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – Skjei11:32
xG 0.66–0.22 (75%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Girardi – McDonagh14:08
xG 0.30–0.39 (44%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
- Staal – Holden13:36
xG 0.46–0.84 (35%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).