Tue, Feb 21, 2017·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Winnipeg Jets 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 28 | 27 | 04 | 01 | 420 |
| TOR | 115 | 212 | 18 | 12 | 537 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:02TORLeo KomarovAssists: Josh Leivo, Nikita Zaitsev · Snap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 4:25WPGPatrik LaineAssists: Mark Scheifele, Mathieu Perreault · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 10:33WPGBryan LittlePPAssists: Adam Lowry, Dustin Byfuglien · Backhand, 0.28 xG2–1
- P2 15:52TORNazem KadriAssists: Josh Leivo, Leo Komarov · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 17:24WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Josh Morrissey, Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–2
- P2 19:28TORLeo KomarovPPAssists: William Nylander, Auston Matthews · Snap, 0.09 xG3–3
- P2 19:57WPGPatrik LaineAssists: Mark Scheifele, Mathieu Perreault · Snap, 0.19 xG4–3
- P3 3:30TORWilliam NylanderPPAssists: Auston Matthews, Jake Gardiner · Snap, 0.22 xG4–4
- OT 2:29TORJake GardinerGWGAssists: Auston Matthews · Snap, 0.11 xG4–5
Penalties (15)
- P1 10:04TORNazem Kadri: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 12:46WPGDustin Byfuglien: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:41TORRoman Polak: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:09TORZach Hyman: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:57WPGNic Petan: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 18:58WPGNikolaj Ehlers: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 19:57WPGDustin Byfuglien: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 19:57TORMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:57WPGPatrik Laine: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:57TORJosh Leivo: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:52WPGMark Scheifele: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:52TORNazem Kadri: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:52WPGChris Thorburn: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:10WPGDustin Byfuglien: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 19:34TORAuston Matthews: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestThorburn – Petan – Tanev5:15
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Little – Ehlers11:56
xG 0.38–0.66 (37%)attempts 8–14goals 1–0
- Matthias – Lowry – Armia10:09
xG 0.05–0.46 (10%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
- Perreault – Scheifele – Laine11:10
xG 0.51–0.98 (34%)attempts 8–18goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- Stuart – Chiarot2:15
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Morrissey14:00
xG 0.38–0.87 (30%)attempts 6–18goals 1–2
- Stuart – Postma8:50
xG 0.10–0.62 (14%)attempts 4–16goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKomarov – Kadri – Leivo9:57
xG 0.90–0.15 (86%)attempts 18–3goals 2–1
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Brown11:06
xG 0.83–0.10 (90%)attempts 17–4goals 0–0
- Martin – Gauthier – Soshnikov6:26
xG 0.24–0.05 (82%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Hyman – Nylander – Matthews11:30
xG 0.51–0.62 (45%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Zaitsev11:52
xG 1.33–0.40 (77%)attempts 25–6goals 2–3
- Polak – Gardiner6:11
xG 0.44–0.10 (82%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Polak – Hunwick10:36
xG 0.37–0.09 (80%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).