Thu, Feb 23, 2017·United Center, Chicago
Arizona Coyotes 3, Chicago Blackhawks 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 310 | 016 | 011 | 337 |
| CHI | 313 | 29 | 17 | 629 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:37CHINick SchmaltzAssists: Jonathan Toews, Richard Panik · Snap, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 7:36ARIJakob ChychrunAssists: Alexander Burmistrov, Max Domi · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 10:28CHIRyan HartmanAssists: Marian Hossa · Snap, 0.14 xG1–2
- P1 16:41CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Ryan Hartman, Tanner Kero · Snap, 0.07 xG1–3
- P1 17:42ARIRyan WhiteAssists: Alexander Burmistrov, Alex Goligoski · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–3
- P1 18:39ARIRadim VrbataAssists: Martin Hanzal, Tobias Rieder · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–3
- P2 2:56CHIMichal RozsivalGWGAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–4
- P2 12:41CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Brent Seabrook · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–5
- P3 9:49CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Artemi Panarin, Artem Anisimov · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 19:02CHIBrian Campbell: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 6:12CHIBrian Campbell: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:26ARIAlexander Burmistrov: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:14CHIRichard Panik: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 13:06ARIBrendan Perlini: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hanzal won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestMcGinn – Martinook – Jooris9:41
xG 0.58–0.20 (75%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Doan – Perlini – Dvorak4:43
xG 0.35–0.15 (69%)attempts 7–2goals 0–1
- Vrbata – Hanzal – Rieder11:44
xG 0.36–0.30 (54%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
- White – Burmistrov – Perlini5:46
xG 0.09–0.10 (47%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Schenn7:37
xG 0.71–0.22 (76%)attempts 14–5goals 0–1
- Schenn – Ekman-Larsson6:27
xG 0.32–0.22 (59%)attempts 4–5goals 1–1
- Murphy – Chychrun15:22
xG 0.44–0.65 (40%)attempts 15–13goals 1–2
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestAnisimov – Kane – Panarin11:39
xG 0.74–0.49 (60%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
- Toews – Panik – Schmaltz11:17
xG 0.40–0.16 (72%)attempts 10–10goals 2–1
- Hossa – Kruger – Rasmussen6:25
xG 0.48–0.28 (63%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Kane – Hartman – Kero3:36
xG 0.14–0.00 (99%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestRozsival – Campbell8:45
xG 0.53–0.13 (81%)attempts 9–7goals 2–0
- Campbell – van Riemsdyk4:28
xG 0.38–0.04 (90%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Keith – van Riemsdyk11:03
xG 0.62–0.35 (64%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).