Fri, Feb 24, 2017·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Arizona Coyotes 2, Dallas Stars 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 18 | 111 | 08 | 227 |
| DAL | 112 | 114 | 311 | 537 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:06ARIRadim VrbataAssists: Max Domi, Alex Goligoski · Slap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 14:12DALDevin ShoreAssists: Jiri Hudler, Esa Lindell · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 13:59ARIMartin HanzalAssists: Radim Vrbata, Connor Murphy · Wrap-around, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 18:58DALJohn KlingbergPPAssists: Jason Spezza, Devin Shore · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 3:03DALJamie BennGWGAssists: Jordie Benn, Esa Lindell · Wrap-around, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 9:22DALLauri KorpikoskiAssists: Radek Faksa, Jamie Oleksiak · Wrist, 0.31 xG2–4
- P3 15:58DALCody EakinAssists: Jamie Benn, Brett Ritchie · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:14DALDan Hamhuis: Tripping2 min
- P1 3:26ARIChristian Dvorak: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:48DALJamie Oleksiak: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:48DALJamie Oleksiak: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:55ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:22ARIChristian Dvorak: Holding2 min
- P2 17:29ARIJordan Martinook: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 3:56DALJamie Oleksiak: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:32ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Delaying game2 min
- P3 13:47ARIMax Domi: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eakin won the faceoff against Martinook
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestVrbata – Hanzal – Rieder5:47
xG 0.99–0.08 (93%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Vrbata – Hanzal – Domi4:40
xG 0.53–0.54 (49%)attempts 9–7goals 1–2
- Doan – Perlini – Dvorak9:50
xG 0.18–0.29 (39%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- White – Rieder – Martinook2:48
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMurphy – Chychrun12:25
xG 1.31–0.71 (65%)attempts 19–10goals 1–1
- Goligoski – Ekman-Larsson13:24
xG 0.39–0.62 (38%)attempts 6–20goals 1–1
- Schenn – Connauton10:28
xG 0.14–0.64 (17%)attempts 8–17goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Eakin – Ritchie9:13
xG 0.96–0.32 (75%)attempts 14–7goals 2–0
- Spezza – Korpikoski – Faksa7:44
xG 0.27–0.36 (43%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Hudler – McKenzie – Shore4:42
xG 0.07–0.16 (29%)attempts 5–4goals 1–1
- Sharp – Roussel – Seguin9:38
xG 0.52–0.84 (38%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohns – Oleksiak11:04
xG 0.61–0.26 (70%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Hamhuis – Klingberg2:18
xG 0.31–0.14 (70%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Benn10:11
xG 1.13–1.08 (51%)attempts 16–13goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).