Sat, Feb 25, 2017·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Montréal Canadiens 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 011 | 25 | 010 | 12 | 328 |
| TOR | 112 | 012 | 18 | 02 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:54TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Jake Gardiner, James van Riemsdyk · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 7:29MTLMax PaciorettyPPAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, Andrew Shaw · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 16:21MTLAlex GalchenyukAssists: Nikita Nesterov, Nathan Beaulieu · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 1:19TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Zach Hyman, William Nylander · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–2
- OT 1:06MTLAndrew ShawGWGAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Andrei Markov · Backhand, 0.19 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:39MTLArtturi Lehkonen: Interference2 min
- P1 8:27TORJake Gardiner: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:10TORWilliam Nylander: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:39TORNikita Soshnikov: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 12:30MTLJeff Petry: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:36TORWilliam Nylander: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPlekanec – Byron – Shaw10:30
xG 0.24–0.05 (82%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Radulov – Pacioretty – Danault11:40
xG 0.50–0.57 (47%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Desharnais – Andrighetto8:00
xG 0.04–0.14 (24%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Galchenyuk – Lehkonen9:31
xG 0.16–0.53 (23%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestNesterov – Beaulieu10:43
xG 0.50–0.05 (91%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Markov – Weber14:15
xG 0.44–0.21 (68%)attempts 20–8goals 0–0
- Emelin – Beaulieu2:23
xG 0.07–0.11 (38%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nylander – Matthews10:22
xG 0.44–0.16 (74%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Komarov – Kadri – Leivo10:51
xG 0.63–0.41 (61%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
- Martin – Gauthier – Soshnikov6:30
xG 0.15–0.01 (96%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Smith – Brown8:11
xG 0.14–0.16 (47%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Marchenko17:37
xG 0.93–0.32 (74%)attempts 14–15goals 2–0
- Rielly – Zaitsev14:26
xG 0.74–0.67 (52%)attempts 18–16goals 0–1
- Polak – Hunwick13:26
xG 0.03–0.26 (9%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).