Sat, Feb 25, 2017·Heinz Field, PittsburghOutdoor game
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 016 | 112 | 110 | 238 |
| PIT | 17 | 111 | 211 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:18PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Jake Guentzel, Scott Wilson · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 6:44PITNick BoninoPPAssists: Jake Guentzel, Brian Dumoulin · Snap, 0.14 xG0–2
- P2 11:14PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Andrew MacDonald · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–2
- P3 1:50PITMatt CullenGWGAssists: Eric Fehr, Tom Kuhnhackl · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
- P3 6:48PHIShayne GostisbeherePPAssists: Claude Giroux, Brayden Schenn · Slap, 0.02 xG2–3
- P3 14:06PITChad RuhwedelAssists: Evgeni Malkin · Snap, 0.02 xG2–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 6:39PITEvgeni Malkin: Throwing equipment2 min
- P1 16:25PHIIvan Provorov: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:08PHIShayne Gostisbehere: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 7:20PITEric Fehr: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:50PITChris Kunitz: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:50PHIDale Weise: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:09PHIBrandon Manning: Holding2 min
- P3 6:34PITJake Guentzel: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 11:19PITCameron Gaunce: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:41PHIShayne Gostisbehere: Interference2 min
- P3 18:00PHIWayne Simmonds: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestWeise – Couturier – Raffl9:32
xG 0.29–0.13 (69%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- VandeVelde – Read – Bellemare5:04
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Voracek – Schenn – Cousins10:42
xG 0.21–0.30 (42%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
- Giroux – Simmonds – Weal10:01
xG 0.11–0.27 (29%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Manning – Gudas13:56
xG 0.24–0.27 (47%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Provorov14:14
xG 0.20–0.24 (45%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Streit – Gostisbehere11:51
xG 0.37–0.45 (45%)attempts 9–14goals 0–2
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Crosby – Guentzel3:53
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Malkin – Kessel7:22
xG 0.15–0.05 (77%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Cullen – Fehr – Kuhnhackl7:54
xG 0.14–0.07 (68%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Malkin – Kessel – Hagelin3:34
xG 0.04–0.02 (62%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Dumoulin13:55
xG 0.43–0.14 (75%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Cole – Ruhwedel2:29
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
- Cole – Schultz15:29
xG 0.38–0.36 (51%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).