Sun, Feb 26, 2017·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Edmonton Oilers 4, Nashville Predators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 18 | 310 | 014 | 432 |
| NSH | 212 | 28 | 18 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:55NSHRyan EllisPPAssists: P.K. Subban, Calle Jarnkrok · Slap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 5:23EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Patrick Maroon · Snap, 0.22 xG1–1
- P1 14:34NSHFilip ForsbergPPAssists: James Neal, Ryan Johansen · Snap, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 7:29NSHVernon FiddlerAssists: Roman Josi, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
- P2 14:12EDMMilan LucicPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Oscar Klefbom · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–3
- P2 15:21NSHColin WilsonAssists: James Neal, Mattias Ekholm · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–4
- P2 16:25EDMMark LetestuPPAssists: Oscar Klefbom · Slap, 0.05 xG3–4
- P2 19:00EDMJordan EberleAssists: Andrej Sekera · Tip-in, 0.10 xG4–4
- P3 1:19NSHViktor ArvidssonPPGWGAssists: James Neal, Roman Josi · Snap, 0.19 xG4–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:14EDMPatrick Maroon: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 14:23EDMKris Russell: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 15:51EDMMilan Lucic: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:17NSHP.K. Subban: Interference2 min
- P2 13:25NSHHarry Zolnierczyk: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 15:21NSHCraig Smith: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 16:46NSHJames Neal: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 0:14EDMKris Russell: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:44EDMPatrick Maroon: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Draisaitl – McDavid9:23
xG 0.46–0.13 (78%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Letestu – Kassian – Caggiula5:40
xG 0.46–0.27 (63%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Lucic – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins6:53
xG 0.02–0.08 (23%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Pakarinen – Khaira6:23
xG 0.09–0.34 (20%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Klefbom8:16
xG 0.39–0.22 (64%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Sekera – Russell12:52
xG 0.61–0.51 (54%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Benning – Nurse7:07
xG 0.05–0.27 (15%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestNeal – Wilson – Jarnkrok2:51
xG 0.33–0.02 (94%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Wilson – Jarnkrok – Watson5:25
xG 0.30–0.04 (89%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Fiddler – Neal – Zolnierczyk5:10
xG 0.04–0.09 (31%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson8:45
xG 0.25–0.44 (36%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Ekholm10:38
xG 0.22–0.16 (58%)attempts 5–6goals 1–1
- Josi – Ellis9:03
xG 0.42–0.46 (48%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Weber – Irwin9:19
xG 0.29–0.53 (36%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).