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Ice Lab

Mon, Feb 27, 2017·Amalie Arena, Tampa

Ottawa Senators 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 5

Away

Ottawa Senators

1

Final

Home

Tampa Bay Lightning

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 57% of the time.

TBL winsOTT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
OTT115011014140
TBL0841719534

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:26OTTKyle TurrisPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Mike Hoffman · Slap, 0.13 xG1–0
  2. P2 1:39TBLBrayden PointUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
  3. P2 5:37TBLNikita KucherovPPGWGAssists: Victor Hedman, Jonathan Drouin · Slap, 0.07 xG1–2
  4. P2 10:26TBLNikita KucherovPPAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Tyler Johnson · Slap, 0.04 xG1–3
  5. P2 19:46TBLNikita KucherovPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Jonathan Drouin · Slap, 0.06 xG1–4
  6. P3 10:57TBLBraydon CoburnAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Tyler Johnson · Slap, 0.06 xG1–5
Penalties (22)
  1. P1 4:39TBLNikita Kucherov: Tripping2 min · PPG
  2. P1 5:26TBLBraydon Coburn: High sticking2 min
  3. P1 18:12TBLAdam Erne: Boarding2 min
  4. P2 5:16OTTMark Borowiecki: Fighting5 min · PPG
  5. P2 5:16TBLBraydon Coburn: Fighting5 min
  6. P2 5:16OTTTom Pyatt: Holding2 min
  7. P2 8:48OTTDion Phaneuf: Tripping2 min · PPG
  8. P2 13:58TBLAndrej Sustr: Slashing2 min
  9. P2 15:55TBLBraydon Coburn: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  10. P2 15:55OTTZack Smith: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  11. P2 19:07OTTZack Smith: Roughing2 min · PPG
  12. P3 12:38TBLCedric Paquette: Tripping2 min
  13. P3 12:38TBLCedric Paquette: Roughing2 min
  14. P3 12:38TBLCedric Paquette: Roughing2 min
  15. P3 12:38TBLGabriel Dumont: Fighting5 min
  16. P3 12:38TBLCedric Paquette: Misconduct10 min
  17. P3 12:38OTTChris Wideman: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  18. P3 12:38OTTChris Wideman: Fighting5 min
  19. P3 12:38TBLGabriel Dumont: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  20. P3 12:38OTTMike Blunden: Roughing2 min
  21. P3 12:38OTTMike Blunden: Roughing2 min
  22. P3 18:22OTTDion Phaneuf: Misconduct10 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

OTT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TBL
44% to win56% to win
← OTT attackTBL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Filppula
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

OTTTBL
40Shots on goal34
2.5Expected goals2.9
54Shot attempts58
36Faceoffs won31
5Power plays3
34Penalty minutes38
16Hits19
9Blocked shots11
6Giveaways10
7Takeaways9

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Ottawa Senators

Forward lines

  1. bestBrassard – Smith – Stone8:07

    xG 0.31–0.21 (60%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0

  2. Pyatt – Wingels – Pageau4:54

    xG 0.10–0.03 (77%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0

  3. Pyatt – Varone – Pageau4:28

    xG 0.15–0.23 (40%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0

  4. Kelly – Blunden – Wingels2:06

    xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestPhaneuf – Karlsson3:44

    xG 0.40–0.28 (59%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0

  2. Karlsson – Borowiecki2:25

    xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0

  3. Methot – Karlsson13:09

    xG 0.47–0.41 (53%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1

Tampa Bay Lightning

Forward lines

  1. bestJohnson – Palat – Kucherov13:12

    xG 0.96–0.43 (69%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0

  2. Dumont – Brown – Paquette4:56

    xG 0.21–0.05 (81%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0

  3. Killorn – Drouin – Point11:06

    xG 0.54–0.45 (55%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0

  4. Filppula – Namestnikov – Erne12:15

    xG 0.47–0.58 (45%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestCoburn – Sustr11:19

    xG 0.86–0.61 (58%)attempts 15–16goals 2–0

  2. Stralman – Garrison16:09

    xG 0.69–0.60 (53%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0

  3. Hedman – Dotchin15:58

    xG 0.53–0.61 (46%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TBL 2.9 xGOTT 2.5 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TBLOTT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 27/100 · #856 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.89 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 38% (winner's lowest chance)
OTT 100%5050%50TBL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +22 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 57% of the time.

TBL winsOTT wins

Simulated goal difference (TBL − OTT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).