Mon, Feb 27, 2017·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Los Angeles Kings 4, Minnesota Wild 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 212 | 19 | 19 | 00 | 430 |
| MIN | 110 | 215 | 19 | 11 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:15LAKNicholas ShoreAssists: Marian Gaborik, Jake Muzzin · Snap, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 13:00MINNino NiederreiterAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Ryan White · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
- P1 15:01LAKTanner PearsonUnassisted · Deflected, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 4:23MINJordan SchroederAssists: Chris Stewart · Deflected, 0.02 xG2–2
- P2 11:30LAKJake MuzzinAssists: Nic Dowd, Dwight King · Deflected, 0.01 xG3–2
- P2 13:05MINRyan WhiteAssists: Eric Staal · Tip-in, 0.05 xG3–3
- P3 1:57LAKMarian GaborikAssists: Nicholas Shore, Trevor Lewis · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–3
- P3 7:04MINJason ZuckerAssists: Tyler Graovac, Jordan Schroeder · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–4
- OT 0:12MINMikael GranlundGWGAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–5
Penalties (3)
- P2 0:39LAKTyler Toffoli: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:35MINJonas Brodin: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:44LAKKyle Clifford: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Carter won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestGaborik – Lewis – Shore11:58
xG 0.96–0.20 (83%)attempts 15–9goals 2–1
- Brown – Kopitar – Kempe11:55
xG 0.22–0.30 (42%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- King – Clifford – Dowd8:27
xG 0.03–0.27 (9%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Carter – Toffoli – Pearson12:38
xG 0.33–0.75 (30%)attempts 20–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – McNabb14:38
xG 0.78–0.13 (86%)attempts 24–8goals 1–2
- Doughty – Forbort19:09
xG 0.34–0.69 (33%)attempts 18–16goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Gravel14:44
xG 0.33–0.95 (26%)attempts 10–15goals 2–2
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Zucker – Granlund12:04
xG 0.68–0.19 (79%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
- Stewart – Schroeder – Graovac9:00
xG 0.44–0.32 (58%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Hanzal – Haula – Coyle12:47
xG 0.17–0.08 (68%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Staal – White – Niederreiter9:08
xG 0.33–0.72 (31%)attempts 9–13goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon19:50
xG 0.85–0.45 (65%)attempts 11–14goals 3–1
- Brodin – Dumba18:53
xG 0.60–0.39 (61%)attempts 18–23goals 0–1
- Scandella – Prosser10:02
xG 0.51–0.55 (48%)attempts 15–13goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).