Tue, Feb 28, 2017·TD Garden, Boston
Arizona Coyotes 1, Boston Bruins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 08 | 18 | 07 | 123 |
| BOS | 18 | 36 | 011 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:06BOSColin MillerAssists: David Pastrnak, David Krejci · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 3:27ARIPeter HollandPPAssists: Brendan Perlini, Radim Vrbata · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 7:07BOSRiley NashSHGWGAssists: Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 18:05BOSDavid BackesAssists: Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron · Snap, 0.05 xG1–3
- P2 19:49BOSBrad MarchandUnassisted · Wrap-around, 0.09 xG1–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 10:09ARIJakob Chychrun: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:02ARITony DeAngelo: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:02BOSBrad Marchand: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:36BOSDavid Krejci: Holding2 min
- P2 1:43BOSBrad Marchand: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 3:49BOSColin Miller: Charging5 min
- P2 3:49BOSColin Miller: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 3:49ARIJakob Chychrun: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:26ARIChristian Dvorak: Holding2 min
- P3 14:21BOSKevan Miller: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Krejci won the faceoff against Martinook
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDoan – Perlini – Dvorak8:07
xG 0.30–0.06 (83%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Jooris – Dvorak – Crouse2:08
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Holland – Domi9:40
xG 0.27–0.48 (36%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- McGinn – Rieder – Martinook10:03
xG 0.30–0.62 (33%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Goligoski – Schenn2:28
xG 0.03–0.02 (62%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Schenn – Chychrun8:41
xG 0.15–0.16 (47%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Goligoski – DeAngelo13:03
xG 0.41–0.48 (46%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestMoore – Nash – Schaller7:29
xG 0.48–0.13 (79%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Backes – Marchand8:46
xG 0.26–0.12 (69%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Krejci – Cehlarik – Pastrnak9:40
xG 0.40–0.38 (51%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Hayes – Spooner – Vatrano9:14
xG 0.06–0.26 (18%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Carlo11:41
xG 0.64–0.14 (82%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Miller – Carlo3:55
xG 0.23–0.08 (75%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Chara – McQuaid4:06
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).