Tue, Feb 28, 2017·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Detroit Red Wings 3, Vancouver Canucks 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 210 | 05 | 011 | 12 | 328 |
| VAN | 010 | 18 | 19 | 00 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:36DETFrans NielsenAssists: Andreas Athanasiou, Xavier Ouellet · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 11:41DETFrans NielsenPPAssists: Henrik Zetterberg · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 1:55VANMarkus GranlundAssists: Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 17:14VANReid BoucherUnassisted · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–2
- OT 2:31DETJustin AbdelkaderPPGWGAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Niklas Kronwall · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:02DETRyan Sproul: Interference2 min
- P1 11:25VANAlexander Edler: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 10:37DETFrans Nielsen: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:01VANLoui Eriksson: Holding2 min
- P3 3:11DETNiklas Kronwall: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:46VANBrendan Gaunce: Cross checking2 min
- OT 0:47VANBrandon Sutter: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Tatar – Mantha8:21
xG 0.34–0.03 (93%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Abdelkader – Helm – Larkin6:40
xG 0.20–0.10 (66%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Abdelkader – Helm – Mantha3:05
xG 0.11–0.25 (31%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Vanek – Athanasiou9:38
xG 0.12–0.31 (29%)attempts 3–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – DeKeyser2:08
xG 0.23–0.01 (95%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Jensen5:25
xG 0.29–0.10 (75%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Jensen – Ouellet5:59
xG 0.20–0.07 (75%)attempts 6–3goals 1–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestGrenier – Gaunce – Rendulic4:27
xG 0.31–0.02 (94%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Boucher – Horvat12:41
xG 0.59–0.45 (56%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Granlund13:59
xG 0.33–0.38 (47%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Sutter – Gaunce – Megna2:52
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSbisa – Larsen13:54
xG 0.52–0.25 (67%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Biega – Hutton8:32
xG 0.32–0.23 (58%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Larsen – Hutton2:17
xG 0.11–0.04 (75%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).