Fri, Mar 3, 2017·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Arizona Coyotes 4, Carolina Hurricanes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 29 | 08 | 25 | 422 |
| CAR | 112 | 112 | 010 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:34ARIChristian DvorakAssists: Shane Doan · Snap, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 17:29ARIAlex GoligoskiAssists: Radim Vrbata, Max Domi · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–0
- P1 19:11CARLee StempniakAssists: Jaccob Slavin, Jay McClement · Deflected, 0.01 xG2–1
- P2 1:30CARJordan StaalAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Phillip Di Giuseppe · Snap, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 9:02ARIJordan MartinookGWGAssists: Shane Doan · Snap, 0.16 xG3–2
- P3 19:01ARIShane DoanENAssists: Tobias Rieder · Wrist, 0.64 xG4–2
Penalties (6)
- P2 8:03CARJeff Skinner: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:07ARIBrendan Perlini: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:15CARJordan Staal: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:34ARIJordan Martinook: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:11ARIShane Doan: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:23CARJeff Skinner: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rask won the faceoff against Jooris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDoan – Perlini – Dvorak6:59
xG 0.48–0.26 (65%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Vrbata – Domi – Dvorak4:35
xG 0.13–0.03 (78%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- McGinn – Martinook – Duclair5:53
xG 0.05–0.14 (25%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Rieder – Jooris – Crouse6:46
xG 0.26–0.40 (39%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Schenn – Ekman-Larsson15:15
xG 0.31–0.42 (43%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Goligoski – DeAngelo12:07
xG 0.85–0.96 (47%)attempts 14–15goals 1–1
- Goligoski – Schenn3:26
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Di Giuseppe – Teravainen13:46
xG 1.14–0.31 (78%)attempts 17–6goals 1–0
- Stempniak – Aho – Ryan2:25
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Nordstrom – Brown – Ryan4:58
xG 0.12–0.05 (69%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- McClement – Nordstrom – Brown3:46
xG 0.13–0.13 (50%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Slavin17:46
xG 1.15–0.12 (91%)attempts 20–6goals 1–0
- Slavin – Pesce2:34
xG 0.16–0.02 (90%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Faulk – Hanifin3:08
xG 0.06–0.14 (30%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).