Sat, Mar 4, 2017·Madison Square Garden, New York
Montréal Canadiens 4, New York Rangers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 111 | 214 | 110 | 435 |
| NYR | 06 | 010 | 111 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:51MTLShea WeberAssists: Max Pacioretty, Steve Ott · Deflected, 0.01 xG1–0
- P2 8:48MTLArtturi LehkonenGWGAssists: Phillip Danault, Max Pacioretty · Snap, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 18:37MTLAndrew ShawAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, Andrei Markov · Wrap-around, 0.13 xG3–0
- P3 1:44NYRChris KreiderAssists: Derek Stepan, Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–1
- P3 6:58MTLJordie BennAssists: Nathan Beaulieu, Alex Galchenyuk · Slap, 0.02 xG4–1
Penalties (3)
- P3 16:45MTLBrendan Gallagher: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 16:45NYRMarc Staal: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:43NYRBrady Skjei: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Miller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPlekanec – Byron – Shaw11:45
xG 0.51–0.23 (69%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Ott – Mitchell – Martinsen9:17
xG 0.37–0.18 (67%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- King – Galchenyuk – Lehkonen10:56
xG 0.70–0.52 (57%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Pacioretty – Gallagher – Danault14:31
xG 0.77–0.84 (48%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Weber17:55
xG 0.96–0.30 (76%)attempts 23–10goals 1–0
- Benn – Beaulieu15:55
xG 0.99–1.17 (46%)attempts 16–15goals 1–1
- Emelin – Petry16:27
xG 0.70–0.89 (44%)attempts 11–21goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Nash – Zibanejad – Buchnevich11:09
xG 0.73–0.75 (49%)attempts 13–15goals 0–1
- Hayes – Miller – Vesey13:40
xG 0.71–0.73 (49%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Pirri – Lindberg – Puempel8:01
xG 0.10–0.34 (24%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Stepan – Kreider – Zuccarello15:28
xG 0.63–0.96 (40%)attempts 12–18goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Staal – Holden17:21
xG 0.17–0.58 (23%)attempts 6–15goals 0–1
- Clendening – Skjei14:33
xG 0.59–1.05 (36%)attempts 16–17goals 0–2
- Smith – McDonagh20:43
xG 0.88–1.36 (39%)attempts 19–24goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).