Sun, Mar 5, 2017·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
New York Islanders 2, Calgary Flames 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 08 | 110 | 117 | 235 |
| CGY | 421 | 09 | 17 | 537 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:56CGYMichael FrolikAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 16:28CGYTJ BrodieAssists: Alex Chiasson, Matt Stajan · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P1 17:10CGYMicheal FerlandGWGAssists: Sean Monahan · Snap, 0.06 xG0–3
- P1 19:36CGYSean MonahanAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Dougie Hamilton · Snap, 0.11 xG0–4
- P2 8:30NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Josh Bailey, Scott Mayfield · Snap, 0.19 xG1–4
- P3 6:58CGYKris VersteegAssists: Sam Bennett, Matt Bartkowski · Slap, 0.10 xG1–5
- P3 11:32NYIJason ChimeraAssists: Nick Leddy, Shane Prince · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:18NYITravis Hamonic: Cross checking2 min
- P2 4:40NYICalvin de Haan: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:06NYIJoshua Ho-Sang: Holding2 min
- P2 8:06CGYJohnny Gaudreau: Embellishment2 min
- P2 18:23CGYMichael Stone: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:16CGYMatt Bartkowski: Cross checking2 min
- P3 15:50CGYMark Giordano: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Chimera – Prince – Strome5:44
xG 0.03–0.05 (39%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Bailey – Nelson – Prince2:15
xG 0.03–0.07 (31%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Kulemin – Beauvillier4:21
xG 0.18–0.34 (35%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Bailey – Tavares – Lee8:51
xG 0.57–0.88 (39%)attempts 7–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Seidenberg – de Haan8:16
xG 0.37–0.36 (51%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Leddy – Mayfield15:21
xG 0.80–0.86 (48%)attempts 13–20goals 1–3
- Hamonic – de Haan7:40
xG 0.05–0.12 (29%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Backlund – Tkachuk11:49
xG 1.12–0.64 (64%)attempts 20–12goals 1–0
- Stajan – Bouma – Chiasson8:39
xG 0.58–0.32 (65%)attempts 12–10goals 1–1
- Versteeg – Brouwer – Bennett10:24
xG 0.37–0.29 (56%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Ferland – Gaudreau – Monahan10:16
xG 0.31–0.48 (39%)attempts 11–13goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Hamilton13:54
xG 1.15–0.46 (71%)attempts 24–13goals 3–1
- Engelland – Bartkowski15:16
xG 0.44–0.56 (44%)attempts 14–17goals 1–0
- Stone – Brodie15:25
xG 0.80–0.96 (45%)attempts 17–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).