Sun, Mar 5, 2017·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Carolina Hurricanes 2, Arizona Coyotes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 014 | 111 | 110 | 235 |
| ARI | 08 | 111 | 07 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:23ARIPeter HollandAssists: Anthony Duclair, Luke Schenn · Wrist, 0.42 xG0–1
- P2 4:46CARTeuvo TeravainenAssists: Jaccob Slavin, Victor Rask · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 16:03CARDerek RyanGWGAssists: Jeff Skinner · Wrist, 0.32 xG2–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:25ARILuke Schenn: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:02CARSebastian Aho: Boarding2 min
- P3 4:40CARJustin Faulk: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:26CARJustin Faulk: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:26CARJustin Faulk: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:26ARIPeter Holland: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:31ARIMax Domi: Closing hand on puck2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Martinook
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Di Giuseppe – Lindholm7:34
xG 0.36–0.02 (95%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Staal – Lindholm – Aho3:34
xG 0.15–0.12 (55%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Stempniak – Skinner – Ryan11:34
xG 0.75–0.76 (50%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
- Rask – Teravainen – Aho9:23
xG 0.55–0.85 (39%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPesce – Hanifin15:07
xG 0.48–0.27 (64%)attempts 20–13goals 0–0
- Slavin – Pesce2:40
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Faulk – Slavin17:28
xG 1.20–1.43 (46%)attempts 18–20goals 2–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestHolland – Duclair – Crouse6:47
xG 0.75–0.09 (90%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- McGinn – Rieder – Jooris9:05
xG 0.68–0.19 (79%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Doan – Martinook – Perlini11:24
xG 0.58–0.48 (55%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Domi – Dvorak13:34
xG 0.38–0.94 (29%)attempts 10–19goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Murphy18:53
xG 1.10–0.54 (67%)attempts 19–20goals 0–0
- Schenn – Ekman-Larsson16:32
xG 1.09–0.83 (57%)attempts 13–23goals 1–1
- DeAngelo – Chychrun10:10
xG 0.71–0.66 (52%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).