Mon, Mar 6, 2017·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Boston Bruins 2, Ottawa Senators 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 113 | 05 | 19 | 227 |
| OTT | 27 | 016 | 26 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:21OTTDerick BrassardAssists: Alexandre Burrows, Marc Methot · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 3:25OTTJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Dion Phaneuf · Slap, 0.02 xG0–2
- P1 18:27BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Torey Krug · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 7:50OTTMike HoffmanPPGWGAssists: Erik Karlsson, Dion Phaneuf · Slap, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 9:04BOSBrad MarchandPPAssists: David Pastrnak, Torey Krug · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–3
- P3 19:10OTTAlexandre BurrowsENAssists: Mark Stone, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.63 xG2–4
Penalties (5)
- P2 9:09BOSDrew Stafford: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 19:31OTTJean-Gabriel Pageau: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:31BOSBrad Marchand: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:36BOSDavid Pastrnak: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:36OTTViktor Stalberg: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Backes – Marchand10:15
xG 0.52–0.02 (97%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak4:14
xG 0.31–0.05 (86%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Backes – Spooner – Vatrano3:43
xG 0.02–0.01 (56%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Stafford – Krejci – Cehlarik4:08
xG 0.12–0.14 (45%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Krug3:39
xG 0.56–0.04 (93%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- McQuaid – Krug14:34
xG 0.53–0.48 (52%)attempts 22–12goals 1–1
- Chara – Carlo15:41
xG 0.25–0.44 (37%)attempts 10–18goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestKelly – Stalberg – Wingels10:37
xG 0.54–0.06 (90%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Burrows – Brassard – Stone10:57
xG 0.45–0.31 (59%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Turris – Smith – Dzingel9:49
xG 0.18–0.24 (43%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Hoffman – Pageau12:04
xG 0.17–0.66 (20%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBorowiecki – Wideman8:44
xG 0.46–0.02 (97%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Methot – Karlsson18:22
xG 0.67–0.48 (58%)attempts 20–21goals 1–0
- Methot – Ceci2:08
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).