Tue, Mar 7, 2017·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Montréal Canadiens 2, Vancouver Canucks 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 110 | 016 | 011 | 11 | 238 |
| VAN | 011 | 04 | 113 | 00 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:57MTLTorrey MitchellAssists: Andrei Markov, Andrew Shaw · Deflected, 0.11 xG1–0
- P3 12:49VANMichael ChaputAssists: Alexander Edler, Troy Stecher · Deflected, 0.08 xG1–1
- OT 1:13MTLPaul ByronGWGAssists: Alex Galchenyuk · Deflected, 0.15 xG2–1
Penalties (4)
- P1 12:27VANTroy Stecher: Interference2 min
- P1 16:13VANLuca Sbisa: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:29MTLPhillip Danault: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:45VANAlexander Edler: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Sutter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Gallagher – Danault11:39
xG 0.37–0.11 (77%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Byron – Shaw6:52
xG 0.33–0.12 (73%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Ott – Byron – Shaw2:56
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Ott – Byron – Martinsen2:09
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBenn – Beaulieu13:16
xG 0.33–0.14 (70%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Benn – Davidson2:35
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Petry – Davidson10:42
xG 0.26–0.36 (43%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Granlund13:09
xG 0.55–0.32 (64%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Sutter – Gaunce – Megna11:28
xG 0.44–0.37 (55%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Chaput – Cramarossa – Boucher5:30
xG 0.13–0.08 (63%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Cramarossa – Baertschi – Horvat3:39
xG 0.06–0.02 (76%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBiega – Hutton11:36
xG 0.28–0.03 (91%)attempts 15–3goals 0–0
- Edler – Stecher12:34
xG 0.61–0.44 (58%)attempts 16–13goals 1–0
- Sbisa – Tanev13:41
xG 0.25–0.20 (55%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).