Thu, Mar 9, 2017·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Minnesota Wild 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 09 | 06 | 118 | 133 |
| TBL | 27 | 113 | 19 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:53TBLNikita KucherovPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Ondrej Palat · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 11:01TBLVictor HedmanGWGAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Jake Dotchin · Snap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 4:37TBLAndrej SustrAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Tyler Johnson · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–3
- P3 16:02MINMarco ScandellaAssists: Jonas Brodin, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 18:51TBLNikita KucherovENAssists: Yanni Gourde · Wrist, 0.66 xG1–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:46MINRyan Suter: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 7:32TBLLuke Witkowski: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:08MINJason Zucker: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:13TBLBrayden Point: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:06TBLJake Dotchin: Holding2 min
- P3 13:03MINNate Prosser: Interference2 min
- P3 16:02TBLJason Garrison: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnson won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Zucker – Granlund11:31
xG 0.29–0.11 (72%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
- Hanzal – White – Niederreiter4:12
xG 0.13–0.07 (65%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Hanzal – White – Stewart5:05
xG 0.17–0.11 (61%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Staal – Parise – Niederreiter6:28
xG 0.13–0.12 (53%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon15:03
xG 0.84–0.24 (78%)attempts 16–9goals 0–1
- Scandella – Prosser12:08
xG 0.33–0.25 (57%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Brodin – Olofsson14:21
xG 0.25–0.46 (36%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Gourde – Drouin7:43
xG 0.18–0.12 (60%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Palat – Kucherov – Point6:10
xG 0.03–0.04 (41%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Erne – Drouin5:44
xG 0.08–0.13 (37%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Johnson – Palat – Kucherov5:33
xG 0.13–0.20 (40%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Sustr10:01
xG 0.44–0.33 (57%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Stralman – Garrison11:31
xG 0.28–0.29 (49%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Hedman – Dotchin12:13
xG 0.14–0.25 (35%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).