Sat, Mar 11, 2017·Gila River Arena, Glendale
New Jersey Devils 4, Arizona Coyotes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 011 | 211 | 28 | 430 |
| ARI | 38 | 114 | 19 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:27ARIRadim VrbataAssists: Max Domi, Connor Murphy · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 2:53ARITobias RiederAssists: Jordan Martinook · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P1 18:25ARIJakob ChychrunPPAssists: Tobias Rieder, Jordan Martinook · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–3
- P2 3:59ARIBrendan PerliniPPAssists: Tony DeAngelo, Jakob Chychrun · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–4
- P2 5:47NJDKyle PalmieriPPAssists: Taylor Hall, Joseph Blandisi · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–4
- P2 12:09NJDBeau BennettAssists: Damon Severson · Backhand, 0.04 xG2–4
- P3 0:17NJDKyle PalmieriAssists: Damon Severson, Adam Henrique · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–4
- P3 13:31ARITony DeAngeloGWGAssists: Jamie McGinn, Jakob Chychrun · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–5
- P3 15:02NJDJohn MooreAssists: Pavel Zacha, Miles Wood · Backhand, 0.02 xG4–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 7:45ARIJosh Jooris: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:45NJDBlake Pietila: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:24ARIMax Domi: Interference2 min
- P1 15:24NJDJoseph Blandisi: Holding2 min
- P1 16:24ARIRadim Vrbata: Cross checking2 min
- P1 16:40NJDTaylor Hall: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 2:11NJDAndy Greene: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 4:36ARIMike Smith: Delaying game illegal play by goalie2 min · PPG
- P2 17:43NJDStefan Noesen: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:43ARIJosh Jooris: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Martinook won the faceoff against Henrique
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestWood – Zacha – Lappin6:30
xG 0.27–0.13 (67%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Bennett – Noesen – Blandisi9:51
xG 0.17–0.19 (48%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Henrique – Palmieri – Hall10:37
xG 0.30–0.32 (48%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
- Pietila – Coleman – Rooney7:37
xG 0.02–0.21 (10%)attempts 2–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Merrill15:04
xG 0.56–0.24 (70%)attempts 14–11goals 0–2
- Moore – Severson14:57
xG 0.40–0.20 (67%)attempts 19–8goals 3–0
- Greene – Santini12:09
xG 0.25–0.54 (32%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestMcGinn – Holland – Duclair8:27
xG 0.31–0.05 (86%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Doan – Jooris – Crouse9:22
xG 0.30–0.25 (54%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Rieder – Martinook – Perlini11:09
xG 0.21–0.17 (55%)attempts 5–12goals 1–1
- Vrbata – Domi – Dvorak9:57
xG 0.09–0.55 (14%)attempts 4–16goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Ekman-Larsson12:23
xG 0.42–0.25 (62%)attempts 13–11goals 0–2
- DeAngelo – Chychrun13:53
xG 0.25–0.33 (44%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Murphy17:18
xG 0.25–0.62 (29%)attempts 8–26goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).