Mon, Mar 13, 2017·Madison Square Garden, New York
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, New York Rangers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 13 | 16 | 17 | 316 |
| NYR | 113 | 17 | 08 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:53NYRSteven KampferAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Chris Kreider · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 7:43TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Jonathan Drouin · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 5:04TBLGabriel DumontAssists: Jason Garrison · Tip-in, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 10:22NYRMichael GrabnerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–2
- P3 13:21TBLBrayden PointGWGAssists: Ondrej Palat, Nikita Kucherov · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–2
Penalties (3)
- P1 6:55NYRBrendan Smith: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 14:33TBLAndrej Sustr: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 5:34NYROscar Lindberg: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- Froese – Namestnikov – Erne7:37
xG 0.18–0.18 (50%)attempts 2–8goals 0–1
- Killorn – Gourde – Drouin13:56
xG 0.36–0.37 (50%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- Dumont – McKegg – Brown6:07
xG 0.07–0.19 (27%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
- Palat – Kucherov – Point14:51
xG 0.63–1.06 (37%)attempts 17–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Sustr14:11
xG 0.18–0.10 (65%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Hedman – Dotchin17:55
xG 0.48–0.76 (38%)attempts 12–21goals 1–0
- Stralman – Garrison15:59
xG 0.31–0.62 (33%)attempts 8–16goals 1–2
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestNash – Zibanejad – Buchnevich13:11
xG 0.75–0.36 (67%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Stepan – Kreider – Zuccarello13:23
xG 0.64–0.33 (66%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Grabner – Hayes – Miller11:26
xG 0.40–0.33 (55%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
- Glass – Lindberg – Vesey8:11
xG 0.11–0.18 (38%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – McDonagh16:39
xG 1.40–0.69 (67%)attempts 20–17goals 1–1
- Smith – Holden21:03
xG 0.64–0.47 (58%)attempts 17–14goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Skjei2:13
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).