Mon, Mar 13, 2017·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Winnipeg Jets 4, Nashville Predators 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 210 | 217 | 06 | 01 | 434 |
| NSH | 216 | 110 | 114 | 12 | 542 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:40WPGBlake WheelerPPAssists: Mark Scheifele, Adam Lowry · Slap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 12:11WPGDustin ByfuglienAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Bryan Little · Snap, 0.13 xG2–0
- P1 12:34NSHAustin WatsonAssists: Anthony Bitetto · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P1 19:49NSHMike FisherAssists: Craig Smith, Roman Josi · Backhand, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 0:19NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Ryan Johansen, Viktor Arvidsson · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
- P2 3:38WPGPatrik LaineAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Bryan Little · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–3
- P2 8:39WPGJoel ArmiaAssists: Josh Morrissey, Paul Postma · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–3
- P3 4:23NSHRyan JohansenAssists: Filip Forsberg, Viktor Arvidsson · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–4
- OT 2:11NSHJames NealPPGWGAssists: Roman Josi, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:19NSHCody McLeod: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 14:00WPGJulian Melchiori: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 0:00WPGShawn Matthias: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:00NSHCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:47WPGJulian Melchiori: Hooking2 min
- OT 1:37WPGDustin Byfuglien: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Perreault – Scheifele14:11
xG 1.17–0.38 (75%)attempts 16–16goals 0–1
- Little – Ehlers – Laine15:44
xG 0.81–0.70 (54%)attempts 15–19goals 2–2
- Thorburn – Copp – Dano5:54
xG 0.13–0.05 (71%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Matthias – Lowry – Armia10:06
xG 0.35–0.60 (37%)attempts 7–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Chiarot12:29
xG 1.04–0.48 (68%)attempts 11–16goals 0–2
- Postma – Morrissey16:30
xG 0.79–0.40 (66%)attempts 18–15goals 1–1
- Byfuglien – Melchiori19:39
xG 0.76–0.54 (58%)attempts 14–16goals 1–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson15:08
xG 1.08–0.45 (71%)attempts 26–8goals 2–2
- Fisher – Parenteau – Smith9:41
xG 0.26–0.25 (51%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Neal – Wilson – Jarnkrok10:33
xG 0.43–0.49 (47%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- McLeod – Watson – Sissons6:20
xG 0.05–0.24 (18%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Ellis20:51
xG 1.14–0.83 (58%)attempts 24–17goals 1–1
- Weber – Bitetto10:27
xG 0.31–0.38 (44%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
- Subban – Ekholm21:03
xG 0.61–1.30 (32%)attempts 28–19goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).