Tue, Mar 14, 2017·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Florida Panthers 7
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 19 | 112 | 09 | 230 |
| FLA | 38 | 312 | 112 | 732 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:18FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 10:33FLAColton SceviourSHAssists: Derek MacKenzie, Mike Matheson · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–2
- P1 13:36TORLeo KomarovPPAssists: William Nylander · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P1 14:21FLAJonathan MarchessaultGWGAssists: Thomas Vanek · Snap, 0.04 xG1–3
- P2 4:38FLAJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Thomas Vanek · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–4
- P2 16:22FLAReilly SmithAssists: Keith Yandle, Jussi Jokinen · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–5
- P2 18:19TORNikita SoshnikovAssists: Matt Martin, Brian Boyle · Backhand, 0.19 xG2–5
- P2 19:33FLAJussi JokinenPPAssists: Thomas Vanek, Vincent Trocheck · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–6
- P3 2:17FLAKeith YandleAssists: Thomas Vanek, Vincent Trocheck · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–7
Penalties (13)
- P1 2:09TORMitch Marner: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 10:12FLANick Bjugstad: High sticking2 min
- P1 12:58FLAJaromir Jagr: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 15:21FLAJakub Kindl: Kneeing2 min
- P2 19:08TORNikita Soshnikov: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 2:49TORRoman Polak: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:15TORWilliam Nylander: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:31FLADerek MacKenzie: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 15:17TORMatt Martin: Cross checking2 min
- P3 15:17FLAAlexander Petrovic: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:23TORJames van Riemsdyk: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:23TORJames van Riemsdyk: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:23FLAJonathan Marchessault: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestBoyle – Martin – Soshnikov9:44
xG 0.54–0.11 (83%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Hyman – Marner – Matthews2:09
xG 0.33–0.18 (65%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Hyman – Brown – Matthews4:14
xG 0.05–0.12 (29%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Komarov – Kadri – Nylander5:42
xG 0.17–0.33 (35%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Zaitsev8:13
xG 0.82–0.22 (79%)attempts 10–6goals 1–1
- Hunwick – Rielly5:02
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Polak – Hunwick8:51
xG 0.10–0.10 (51%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Smith – Trocheck8:56
xG 0.51–0.13 (80%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Jagr – Huberdeau – Barkov11:08
xG 0.46–0.21 (69%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Thornton – MacKenzie – Sceviour6:33
xG 0.20–0.13 (60%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Vanek – Bjugstad – Marchessault9:25
xG 0.50–0.49 (50%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Demers12:09
xG 1.14–0.73 (61%)attempts 16–13goals 3–1
- Kindl – Pysyk12:53
xG 0.44–0.43 (51%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Petrovic – Matheson15:12
xG 0.31–0.37 (46%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).