Tue, Mar 14, 2017·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Buffalo Sabres 1, San Jose Sharks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 19 | 05 | 09 | 123 |
| SJS | 020 | 217 | 25 | 442 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:10BUFJack EichelAssists: Matt Moulson, Josh Gorges · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 11:47SJSJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Logan Couture, Joe Thornton · Snap, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 19:10SJSMicheal HaleyGWGUnassisted · Deflected, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 5:28SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Dylan DeMelo, Joe Thornton · Snap, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 14:57SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Joel Ward, Patrick Marleau · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 7:56BUFTyler Ennis: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:52BUFCody Franson: Holding2 min
- P2 10:57BUFJustin Falk: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 13:14SJSJustin Braun: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestEnnis – O'Reilly – Kane2:45
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Gionta – O'Reilly – Kane10:45
xG 0.16–0.13 (56%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Ennis – Deslauriers – Rodrigues4:03
xG 0.04–0.24 (15%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
- Gionta – Deslauriers – Rodrigues3:45
xG 0.11–0.31 (26%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Franson13:35
xG 0.86–0.53 (62%)attempts 15–14goals 1–2
- Franson – Falk2:12
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Falk – Bogosian13:22
xG 0.18–0.54 (25%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHaley – Sorensen – Tierney11:01
xG 0.71–0.33 (68%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Marleau – Ward – Couture12:16
xG 0.78–0.52 (60%)attempts 20–8goals 1–0
- Boedker – Donskoi – Hertl12:44
xG 0.54–0.33 (62%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Hansen10:37
xG 0.37–0.21 (64%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Burns16:16
xG 1.29–0.81 (61%)attempts 29–15goals 1–1
- Dillon – DeMelo12:14
xG 0.57–0.32 (64%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Vlasic – Braun16:16
xG 0.26–0.36 (42%)attempts 9–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).