Wed, Mar 15, 2017·Pepsi Center, Denver
Detroit Red Wings 1, Colorado Avalanche 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 110 | 010 | 08 | 128 |
| COL | 010 | 17 | 212 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:09DETAndreas AthanasiouAssists: Justin Abdelkader, Dylan Larkin · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 12:08COLMatt DucheneAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Fedor Tyutin · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P3 3:49COLJ.T. CompherGWGAssists: Francois Beauchemin · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 5:44COLCarl SoderbergAssists: Blake Comeau, John Mitchell · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 10:04COLNathan MacKinnon: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:36DETDrew Miller: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:27DETAndreas Athanasiou: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 19:25DETTomas Tatar: Interference2 min
- P3 6:55DETNiklas Kronwall: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:58DETRobbie Russo: Penalty shot holding on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Nyquist – Tatar12:01
xG 0.97–0.54 (65%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
- Abdelkader – Athanasiou – Larkin7:00
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Helm – Mantha7:28
xG 0.32–0.14 (70%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Miller – Sheahan – Glendening4:33
xG 0.02–0.09 (20%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – DeKeyser8:41
xG 0.51–0.25 (68%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
- Kronwall – Green13:33
xG 0.62–0.38 (62%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Russo – Ouellet9:32
xG 0.31–0.18 (64%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestBourque – Duchene – Landeskog11:06
xG 0.59–0.31 (65%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Colborne – Grigorenko – Compher7:47
xG 0.32–0.11 (74%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Mitchell – Comeau – Soderberg11:38
xG 0.06–0.36 (15%)attempts 7–10goals 1–1
- Andrighetto – MacKinnon – Rantanen11:37
xG 0.41–1.04 (28%)attempts 11–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Lindholm5:05
xG 0.50–0.12 (81%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Beauchemin – Lindholm6:20
xG 0.22–0.02 (91%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Barrie5:37
xG 0.14–0.11 (55%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).