Fri, Mar 17, 2017·Madison Square Garden, New York
Florida Panthers 4, New York Rangers 3 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 011 | 214 | 110 | 02 | 1 | 437 |
| NYR | 27 | 08 | 115 | 02 | 0 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:34NYRMats ZuccarelloPPAssists: Chris Kreider, Derek Stepan · Snap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 4:11NYRJ.T. MillerAssists: Brendan Smith, Mika Zibanejad · Snap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 1:25FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Alexander Petrovic · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–2
- P2 6:41FLAJussi JokinenPPAssists: Thomas Vanek, Jason Demers · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 7:23FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 11:45NYRMats ZuccarelloAssists: Brendan Smith, Nick Holden · Snap, 0.14 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. NYR Mats Zuccarello stopped
- 2. FLA Vincent Trocheck stopped
- 3. NYR Mika Zibanejad stopped
- 4. FLA Aleksander Barkov scored
- 5. NYR Michael Grabner stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:45FLAJakub Kindl: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 8:44FLANick Bjugstad: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:47NYRMats Zuccarello: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:56NYRBrady Skjei: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 14:00FLAJason Demers: Cross checking2 min
- P3 12:17FLANick Bjugstad: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:17NYRKevin Hayes: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:30FLAAlexander Petrovic: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:30NYRJ.T. Miller: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Trocheck won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Huberdeau – Barkov12:50
xG 0.76–0.36 (68%)attempts 15–7goals 2–0
- Jokinen – Smith – Trocheck11:30
xG 0.66–0.30 (69%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Thornton – MacKenzie – Sceviour6:10
xG 0.05–0.14 (25%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Vanek – Bjugstad – Marchessault7:27
xG 0.10–0.39 (21%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Demers15:16
xG 0.71–0.50 (59%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Kindl – Pysyk11:35
xG 0.43–0.32 (57%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Petrovic – Matheson16:58
xG 0.71–1.03 (41%)attempts 17–19goals 1–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Kreider – Zuccarello11:00
xG 0.50–0.14 (79%)attempts 10–6goals 1–1
- Grabner – Hayes – Fast6:36
xG 0.43–0.22 (66%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Nash – Zibanejad – Miller11:20
xG 0.62–0.51 (55%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
- Glass – Lindberg – Vesey7:47
xG 0.05–0.66 (7%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – Holden14:28
xG 0.66–0.48 (58%)attempts 14–12goals 2–1
- Staal – McDonagh13:24
xG 0.44–0.27 (62%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
- Kampfer – Skjei13:49
xG 0.69–1.05 (39%)attempts 14–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).